基于灰色系统理论的我国铁矿产业安全性研究

对2000～2009年我国铁矿产业的发展现状进行了统计分析, 建立了我国铁矿产业的灰色关联度矩阵, 进行了铁矿产业的灰色关联度矩阵分析和预测。① 最优相关因素序列为: 钢产量(X₃)、矿石产量增长率(X₄); 揭示了铁矿石产业中钢产量和铁矿石产量增长率对国民经济建设的影响最大。② 次优相关因素序列为: 铁矿石消费量(X₇)。③ 最劣和次劣相关因素序列为: 钢产量增长率(X₂)、铁矿石自给率(X₉); 说明它们对于国民经济建设的影响不大; ④ 最优特征行为序列为: GDP增长率(Y₂); 说明铁矿石产业的发展对于GDP增长率(Y₂)的影响大于对GDP(Y₁)的影响。⑤ 建立了我国铁矿石产业与GDP的GM(1, 1)预测模型, 并对2010～2014年我国铁矿产业及GDP的发展进行了准确的预测。预测显示, 随着国民经济的高速增长, 铁矿供需矛盾突出, 因此, 应该加强铁矿资源的地质找矿工作, 加强钢铁资源的循环利用, 并积极寻找钢铁的替代材料, 只有这样, 才能提高我国铁矿产业支撑国民经济建设的安全性。

Safety Analysis of Domestic Iron Ore Industry Based on Grey System Theory

A statistic analysis was made on the development status of iron ore industry from 2000 to 2009 in China. A grey incidence matrix of domestic iron ore industry was established, by which the iron ore industry was analyzed and predicted: ① The optimal sequence of incidence factors is as  follows: steel output(X₃), increase rate of iron ore output(X₄), which shows that the steel output and the increase rate of iron ore output have the biggest impact on the national economy construction; ② The sub-optimal sequence: consume volume of iron ore(X₇); ③ The worst and sub-worst sequences of incidence factors: growth rate of steel output(X₂), self-sufficiency rate of iron ore(X₉), indicating that they have little impact on the national economic construction; ④ The optimal sequence of characteristic behaviors: increase rate of GDP(Y₂), showing that the development of the iron ore industry is more important to rate of GDP(Y₂) than to GDP(Y₁); ⑤ A forecast model GM(1,1) of the iron ore industry and GDP in China was established, by which the development of domestic iron ore industry and GDP from 2010 to 2014 has been accurately predicted. The prediction tells that the rapid growth of the national economic construction brings big pressure to the iron ore industry. Therefore, the geology exploration of iron ore resource should be strengthened as well as the recycling of steel and iron resource and seeking of the substitute material for iron and steel. Only in this way can the support of domestic iron ore industry to the national economic construction be ensured.