| 一种动态数据序列组合预测模型法 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈晓怀,张勇斌,费业泰.一种动态数据序列组合预测模型法[J].合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版),2001,24(6):1025-1028. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈晓怀 张勇斌 费业泰 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥工业大学仪器仪表学院,安徽,合肥,230009 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点资助项目 ( 5 9735 12 0 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 文章综述了灰色模型、谐波分析和时序分析的基本原理和建模方法 ,分析了各种模型的适用性与局限性 ,在此基础上提出了基于上述 3种基本建模方法的组合模型法。组合模型有效地融合了各种基本建模方法的特色与优势 ,弥补了单个基本模型的缺陷与不足 ,尤其适用于对非平稳性动态数据序列的建模。仿真结果表明 ,组合模型法能有效地提高数据序列的预报准确度。
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| 关 键 词： | 动态数据序列 灰色模型 谐波分析 时序分析 组合模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5060(2001)06-1025-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年6月18日 |
On a compound forecasting model for dynamic data sequence |
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| CHEN Xiao huai,ZHANG Yong bin,FEI Ye tai.On a compound forecasting model for dynamic data sequence[J].Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Natural Science),2001,24(6):1025-1028. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Xiao huai ZHANG Yong bin FEI Ye tai |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,the basic principles and modeling methods of grey model, harmonic analysis and time sequence analysis are described, and a compound model is presented based on the above three modeling methods. The compound model syncretizes the characteristics and advantages of the three modeling methods effectively, and offsets the shortage of a single model, so it is especially suitable to modeling of non stationary dynamic data sequence. The simulation results show that the presented method is effective in improving the forecasting accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | dynamic data sequence grey model harmonic analysis time sequence analysis compound model |
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