基于三维生态足迹的京津冀城市群自然资本可持续利用分析

生态足迹是区域可持续评估的重要方法,三维生态足迹模型能区分并追踪自然资本存量的消耗与流量的占用。目前三维足迹与自然资本利用研究主要集中在全球和国家尺度。本文以京津冀城市群为例开展区域尺度研究,核算并分析了2010年研究区13个城市的人均区域足迹深度、足迹广度及其组成差异与影响因素,揭示了京津冀城市群自然资本利用格局及生态可持续现状。结果表明：13个城市普遍生态赤字,足迹深度差异受能源消费数量和结构的突出影响,与城市经济发展水平呈“倒N型”库兹涅茨曲线关系。京津冀城市群内4种自然资本利用类型分别为存量资本消耗水平相对于流量资本占用水平严重超前(北京、天津、唐山)、显著超前(石家庄、邯郸)、一般超前(沧州、廊坊、衡水、邢台、保定)及基本一致(秦皇岛、张家口、承德)。上述4种类型地域的区域生态持续性依次从最弱转向较弱、较强、最强。本文在城市群自然资本持续利用的刻画和表达方面取得了较优于传统二维足迹模型的评价结果。

Sustainability evaluation of natural capital utilization based on a three-dimensional ecological footprint model: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan region

Ecological footprint analysis is an important method of sustainability assessment. Three-dimensional ecological footprint model (3DEF) can distinguish and track the occupation of natural capital stock and the consumption of natural capital flows, and consequently elucidating the core issues of sustainable development. To date, studies that apply the 3DEF method for the evaluation of sustainable utilization of natural capital are relatively few and mainly concerned with the global or the national scale. Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the study area, this research evaluated natural capital utilization sustainability based on a 3DEF model at the scale of metropolitan region. Using statistical data in 2010, this research first calculated the ecological footprint depth (EFdepth) and footprint size (EFsize) of 13 cities. It then, analyzed the difference in the composition of the 13 cities' EFdepth and EFsize, as well as its influencing factors and examined the pattern of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan region's natural capital use in 2010. Lastly, it examined the ecological sustainability status of this metropolitan region. The main conclusions of the study are as follows: Ecological deficit is prevalent in the 13 cities of the metropolitan region. EFdepth is deeply influenced by the amount and structure of fossil energy consumption. The relationship between EFdepth and economic development may be described by the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) with an inverted N shape. According to the relationship between the depletion of stocks and the appropriation of flows, the 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan region are divided into four categories, namely, the depletion of stocks is seriously, significantly, or generally ahead of the appropriation of flows, and the average level of the depletion of stocks and the appropriation of flows are the same. The ecological sustainability status of these four types of cities is, respectively, the weakest, weaker, stronger, and the strongest. The results presenting the natural capital utilization at the metropolitan region scale based on the 3DEF model are better than that with traditional ecological footprint model method.