新时期中国经济增长的空间格局

针对1998~2013年中国2 303个县域经济增长格局与变迁研究表明：县域经济空间关联格局相对较稳定,高高区呈团块式集中于东部沿海,带状式分布于内蒙地区,低低区散布中西部地区;县域增长时空关联特征及变化大体相一致,经济增长潜力或活力的环渤海、长江三角洲、珠江三角洲及内蒙古地区的县域单元LISA时间路径移动长度变化较大;中西部地区县域LISA时间路径长度较短,经济增长缺乏活力,而时间路径弯曲度最大的地区主要分布于缺乏稳定空间依赖方向的京九沿线、110°E附近及西藏部分县域。

Spatial Pattern of Chinese Economic Growth at County Level in the 21th Century

Entering the 21th century, under the context of coordinated regional development strategy, identifying the trend of spatio-temporal evolution of regional economy growth plays an important role in timely optimizing spatial pattern and formulating reasonable spatial development strategy. By characterizing regional economy growth with per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and under the framework of exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis (ESTDA), this article focuses on analyzing spatio-temporal dynamic evolution of 2 303 counties’ economy growth in China in 1998-2013. The main results are following that: 1) There are synchronous trends of widening disparity and enhancing spatial association trends of county units’ economy growth. To be specific, regional economic growth disparity results from enhancing spatial association, while spatial association in space reflects widening regional economy growth disparity. 2) Local spatial association pattern of county units’ economic growth is relatively stable with time evolution. For instance, high-high areas like a mass type are mainly clustering in the eastern coastal region and exhibiting strip distribution type in Inner Mongolia region, and the amounts of high-high areas tend to increase. while low-low areas are mainly distributing in the vast Midwest region, but the amounts of low-low regions are decreasing. So, dominant economy core areas in future are still along both east-west axis of the Longhai-Lanxin showing belt development and along the north-south axis of eastern coastal regions. 3) The LISA time path can help find where are the most economic growth potential and vitality. The longest regions of LISA time path are mainly distributed around Bohai Sea, the Changjiang River Delta, the Zhujiang River Delta and the Inner Mongolia Region, while the shortest regions of LISA time path are widely located in Midwest counties which are economic backward areas and lack of upward economic momentum. Regions with maximum tortuosity of LISA time path are often lack of local stable spatial dependent direction, such as areas along the line of Beijing-kowloon railway, adjacent to longitude of 110°E and part of counties in Tibet. Hence, it is firstly essential to develop the Jing-Shan economic trough belt, then motivating its effect in connecting the west and east of China. 4) According to space-time transition matrix of local Moran's I, the maximum probability value of together up is just 0.061, while the frequency of type IV is 0.936 8. This implies that county units’ economic structure and local spatial association structure have higher stability and there exists to some degree path-dependent or space-locked mode.