山东省1960—2009年气温变化特征分析

笔者利用多种方法对山东省1960—2009年的年平均气温、季节平均气温进行了特征分析以及突变检验．分析结果表明：近50年来，山东省年平均气温呈现波动上升趋势，增温速率为0．27℃／10a，并在1997年发生增温突变．增暖趋势的显著性为：冬季〉春季〉秋季〉夏季．春季平均气温增温速率为0．35℃／10a；夏季增温缓慢，以0．08℃／10a的速率增加；秋季增温略低于春季，增温速率为0．23℃／10a；冬季增温趋势最为明显，为0．45℃／10a．季节突变分析表明：春季平均气温在2000年发生突变，秋季均温在2004年发生突变，冬季均温在1986年发生突变．

CHARACTERISTIC OF CLIMATIC CHANGE FROM 1960 TO 2009 IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

This study uses a variety of methods to analyse the characteristics and mutation of mean annual temperature, mean seasonal temperature from 1960 to 2009 in Shandong province. The results show that the mean annual temperature in Shandong province increases with 0.27 ℃ per decade in recent 50 years, and an abrupt change occurs in 1997. The largest increase in temperature occurs in winter time, and spring time , and then in autumn time, the lowest is in summer time. Spring average temperature increases with 0.35 ℃ per decade, summer average temperature increase slowly, at a rate of 0.08 ℃per decade, autumn average temperature increases with 0. 23 ℃ per decade, the warming trend in winter was the most remarkable, which at the rate of 0.45 ℃ per decade. The analysis of seasonal abrupt shows that spring temperature abrupts in 2000, autumn in 2004, and winter in 1986.