| 广西热带气旋特征变化与灾损变化态势 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄雪松,廖雪萍,覃卫坚.广西热带气旋特征变化与灾损变化态势[J].气象研究与应用,2014(1):1-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄雪松 廖雪萍 覃卫坚 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西区气候中心;广西气象减灾研究所; |
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| 基金项目： | 广西自然科学基金资助(2013GXNSFBB053010);广西自然科学基金资助(2013GXNSFAA019273);气候变暖背景下广西极端降水研究(2011GXNSFA018008) |
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| 摘 要： | 运用线性倾向估计法,分析1951～2012年影响广西热带气旋频数和强度变化及1984～2012年热带气旋灾害失情况.结果显示：8、9月的热带气旋频数呈明显减少趋势;热带气旋年频数呈减少趋势;热带气旋频数年代际变化表现为近10年最少.热带气旋最大强度呈不显著减弱趋势,平均强度呈不显著增强趋势.29年间,热带气旋造成的受灾人口明显增多,死亡人数明显减少;农作物受灾率和绝收率、房屋倒塌数量以及直接经济损失总体变化趋势均不明显.
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| 关 键 词： | 广西 热带气旋 特征变化 灾损变化态势 |
Variation Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones Affecting-Guangxi and Change Trends of Losses |
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| Huang Xue-song,Liao Xue-ping,Qin Wei-jian.Variation Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones Affecting-Guangxi and Change Trends of Losses[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2014(1):1-6. |
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| Authors: | Huang Xue-song Liao Xue-ping Qin Wei-jian |
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| Affiliation: | 1 Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning, Guangxi 530022 2 Guangxi Meteorological Society, Nanning, Guangxi 530022) |
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| Abstract: | Based on linear tendency estimate method, the influence frequency and intensity change of tropical cyclone from 1951 to 2012 in Guangxi, and tropical cyclone disaster losses during 1984 ～ 2012 were analyzed. The result shows that the frequency of tropical cyclone in8, 9 months showed significantly reduced trend; annual frequency of tropical cyclones showed a trend of decrease; decadal frequency change showed least in nearly 10 years. The maximum intensity showed insignificant weakening trend, and the average intensity of trends showed insignificant increasing trend. During 29 years, the affected popula- tion increased significantly, the number of deaths decreased significantly; crop damage rate and rejection rate, the number of collapsing houses and direct economic loss of the overall trends are not obvious. |
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| Keywords: | Guangxi tropical cyclones variation characteristics change trends of disaster losses |
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