1999~2011年鄂尔多斯市温室气体足迹动态分析

采用基于IPCC的《省级温室气体编制指南》和国际公认的《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》推荐的方法对鄂尔多斯市的温室气体足迹进行了动态分析.结果表明:1999~2011年鄂尔多斯市温室气体排放呈快速上升趋势,12年间温室排放量从518.10′104t上升为11730.10′104t,年均增幅29.69%.增幅最高的部门是能源(年均增幅35.08%)、水泥(21.94%)、农业(5.15%),林业固碳较低(28.84′104t),废弃物碳排放波动变化.从温室气体来源构成看,能源占57.5%~93.7%,水泥占3.35%~7.01%,农业占14.6%~32.6%,林业固碳占0.25%~5.57%,废弃物处理占0.44%~1.00%.可见能源消费的增加是导致鄂尔多斯市温室气体排放增加的主要原因.万元GDP温室气体排放量呈现波动变化;人均、单位面积温室气体排放量和温室气体排放指数增速很快,年均增幅分别达25.60%、30.12%和25.67%.12年间鄂尔多斯市温室气体排放等级持续上升,从较低(Ⅰc)升高到极高等级(Ⅲc),目前距应对气候变暖目标(Ⅰb)已高出了7个亚级.鄂尔多斯市温室气体排放亟待降低.

Dynamic changes of greenhouse footprint in Ordos City from 1999 to 2011

Global warming caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emission could cause severe natural environment problems. GHG accounting has become one of the hot research topics. Internationally,there were some researches on GHG accounting and some progresses have obtained, while the main problem was that the researches mainly focused on carbon emission from fossil fuel combustion, less involved the assessment methods of the regional carbon emission level. Ordos was the economic, cultural and large-scale industry hub in Inner Mongolia, however, the research about GHG footprint in Ordos was lack of in the literatures. To understand the dynamics of law and GHG emission level in Ordos city, using the method recommended by Chinese" Guidelines for Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories" and "the 2006IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories", a dynamic changes of GHG footprint in Ordos City was evaluated. The results showed that GHG emission was rising rapidly from 1999 to 2011 in Ordos, increasing from 518.10′104t to 11730.10′104t, which represented an average annual increase of 29.69%. The largest increase was for energy GHG (an average annual increase of 35.08%), cement (21.94%) and agriculture (5.15%). Forestry carbon sequestration was 28.84′104t (remain unchanged), which was a lower carbon sequestration,while waste carbon emission changed fluctuant. For the sources of GHG, energy GHG accounted for 57.5% ~ 93.7%, cement GHG accounted for 3.35% ~ 7.01%, agriculture GHG for 14.6%~32.6%, forestry carbon sequestration for -0.25%~-5.57%, and waste treatment GHG for 0.44%~1.00%. So the increase of energy consumption was the main cause of the increase in GHG emission in Ordos, and forestry carbon sequestration capacity needed to be improved. The GHG emissions per ten thousand yuan showed fluctuation, and GHG emission of per unit area and emission index grew quickly, showing an average annual increase of 25.60%, 30.12% and 25.67% respectively. The GHG emission level has increased continually from a low level (Ⅰc) to a high level (Ⅲc) during 12years, which was an increase of seven sub-grades higher than the target (Ⅰb) set for the control of global warming. So the increasing trend in carbon emission couldn’t be ignored in Ordos, and GHG emission needed to be reduced.