| 基于小波分析的最近邻抽样回归预报模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 汤成友,刘晔.基于小波分析的最近邻抽样回归预报模型研究[J].人民长江,2011,42(6):53-56. |
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| 作者姓名： | 汤成友 刘晔 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 长江水利委员会水文局,长江上游水文水资源勘测局,重庆,400014
2. 重庆交通大学,重庆,400074 |
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| 摘 要： | 〗为了提高水文中长期预报的精度，以屏山站1951～2005年年径流序列为例，应用小波分析技术对信号进行多尺度分析，将水文时间序列分解成若干个高频序列和低频序列，再将高频序列和低频序列分别应用最近邻抽样回归建立模型，然后应用小波重构技术将各序列进行重构，从而实现对原始序列的预测。结果表明：应用小波技术建立的组合模型，其精度明显高于单一的最近邻抽样回归模型，可以应用于生产实践中。
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| 关 键 词： | 水文中长期预报 小波分析 最近邻回归 组合模型 |
The nearest neighbor bootstrap regressive model for forecast based on wavelet analysis |
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| TANG Chengyou,LIU Ye.The nearest neighbor bootstrap regressive model for forecast based on wavelet analysis[J].Yangtze River,2011,42(6):53-56. |
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| Authors: | TANG Chengyou LIU Ye |
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| Affiliation: | TANG Chengyou 1,LIU Ye 2 (1.The Upper Yangtze River Survey Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Chongqing 400014,China,2.Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve mid-long term hydrological forecast accuracy,taking annual runoff series from 1951 to 2005 of Pinshan hydrological station as a research subject,wavelet technology is applied in the analysis of multi-scale information.The hydrological data series are decomposed into high frequency data series and low frequency data series and the nearest neighbor bootstrap is used to establish regressive model for the 2 decomposed series,and then the series are reconstructed by wavelet technology.Therefo... |
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| Keywords: | mid-long term hydrological forecast wavelet analysis the nearest neighbor bootstrap integrated model |
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