利用闪电定位和雷达资料进行雷电临近预报方法研究

利用LD- Ⅱ 型闪电定位系统监测到的雷电资料和多普勒天气雷达探测到的风暴信息,研究雷电临近预报方法.叠加分析雷电集中区与风暴,雷电集中区一般对应有风暴,并且雷电集中区中心在风暴中心附近,二者移动方向基本一致,移速接近,因此通过匹配雷电集中区与风暴,采用雷电集中区将随其所匹配的风暴一起移动的思路,利用风暴追踪技术,对雷电集中区进行临近外推,从而实现雷电的临近落区预报.通过对2009年强雷电天气的临近预报结果进行网格点对点评分,雷电半小时预报命中率达到87％,成功率为63％.1小时预报命中率达到76％,成功率为51％.为雷电的临近预报提供了一套可业务运行的新方法.

A STUDY OF LIGHTNING NOWCASTING METHOD USING LD-II AND CINRAD-SA RADAR DATA

Using LD-II lightning detection system and CINRAD-SA Dopper Radar STI (Storm Tracking Information) data, the method of lightning nowcasting is studied. Comparing the lightning clusters detected by a lightning detection system with the storms identified by a Dopper radar, the result showed that lightning clusters are in the neighborhood of a storm. The lightning cluster and the storm move at similar direction and velocity, making it possible for a lightning cluster to match with one or more storms. The lightning clusters are extrapolated using the idea that every lightning cluster moves together with its matching storm and the storm's movement is obtained through the technology of Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT). With detected lightnings compared with those forecast for 2009, the critical success index(CSI) is found to be 63%(51%) and probability of detection(POD) about 87%(76%) for 30-min. (1-h) forecast. The study offers one new lightning nowcasting method that can be applied to routine operation.