基于贝叶斯理论和蒙特卡洛模拟的桩基可靠度分析

介绍了一种基于贝叶斯理论和蒙特卡洛模拟的桩基可靠度分析设计方法。结合欧洲岩土设计规范Eurocode7设计过的一个桩基实例,进行了可靠度分析设计与结果比较,所得设计结果与Eurocode7结果是一致的。该方法给设计者提供了足够的主动性和灵活性,去调整目标失效概率或建立适当的假设或简化,且不需要增加任何附加工作量。最后阐述了土的有效内摩擦角φ和可变荷载Q的不确定性对可靠度设计的影响。

A Reliability Analysis Method for Pile Foundation Based on Bayesian Theory and Monte Carlo Simulation

This paper presents a reliability analysis method for pile foundation based on Bayesian theory and Monte Carlo simulation.A pile design example used in the literature to illustrate Eurocode7 is re-designed using this reliability analysis method.The reliability analysis method results are consistent with the designs from Eurocode7.Using the reliability analysis method,design engineers have the enough initiative and flexibility to adjust the design target failure probability (PT) easily and make assumptions or simplifications deemed appropriate in designs without additional computational efforts.Finally,the effect of uncertainties on the soil effective friction angle (j) and variable load (Q) were illustrated using this method.