三元结构下的国别法两国贸易顺差——投入表法

在二元结构下,国别法贸易顺差等于国际收支的经常项目。本文利用投入产出表中的投入表法构造了一个三元结构下国别法贸易顺差核算模型,其主要目的是研究在三元结构下国别法双边贸易顺差与双边国际收支经常项目的异同。研究的主要结论为:在三元结构下,二者将会有显著的不同。这意味着对我国这样一个世界上最主要的外国直接投资接受国来说,在用国别法研究双边贸易时,简单套用二元结构下的BEA法会产生较大的误差。

Ternary-Structure Ownership-Based Trade Surplus-Input Table Approach

Under dual-structure, ownership-based trade surplus of a country is equal to its current account balance, which is the foundation of the BEA approach. However this paper shows that the ownership-based bilateral trade surplus is not equal to the bilateral current account balance under a ternary-structure ownership-based accounting model. Therefore, if we want to apply the ownership-based approach to calculate a bilateral trade surplus, we cannot use the BEA approach.