国际土木工程货币贬值风险分析与规避

我国国际工程承包商所中标的国际工程，大多位于非洲、南美等落后地区。就国际工程来说，这些地区的特点为货币浮动较大、政局易变等。其中货币贬值发生的概率非常高，且为承包商所带来的损失不易索赔。虽然FIDIC 合同中有保护承包商免受货币贬值亏损的条款，但该条款为承包商所带来的经济补偿仍然不足以弥补承包商的亏损。基于此，结合某企业在非洲加纳片区的实际生产过程，利用远期汇率、决策优化等方法，讨论如何规避当地货币异常贬值的风险。根据软件计算得到的结果，项目在确认开工时和银行签订远期汇率购买合同可以避免货币贬值风险。

Risk Analysis of Currency Devaluation in International Civil Engineering Project

Most of our international projects are in undeveloped countries，such as Africa，South America and so on；their characteristics are currency devaluation，political unrest and so on. Although contractor and employer have tried their best to avoid the loss in accordance with the FIDIC conditions，the high probability of the currency devaluation causes a serious loss to contractor. Combining with the practical construction in Ghana and making use of the theories of forward-exchange-rate and optimization, how to get away from currency exception devaluation risk is discussed. Through the results calculated by lingo，the risk of currency devaluation can be avoided by signing the forward-exchange-rate contract.