上海市机动车尾气排放协同控制效应研究

以2007~2012年为一个时间序列,通过详细调查上海市机动车道路交通等基础资料对机动车各污染物排放量进行测算,并利用协同控制坐标系评价方法,设计单一措施、结构性措施和综合性措施等3种机动车污染减排控制情景.结果表明:2007~2012年,上海市机动车污染物年排放量呈递减趋势,其中摩托车(MC)、小型汽油客车(LDGV)、重型柴油货车(HDDT)和大型柴油客车(HDDV)是机动车污染物主要的排放源,其排放量总和占到机动车污染物总量的90%以上.按当前上海市机动车保有量增长速度,2018年机动车尾气排放的可吸入颗粒物(PM₁₀)增长7%,温室气体增长比例为15%~108%,其中二氧化碳(CO₂)增长比例达到45%以上.在各控制情景下污染物和温室气体均有不同程度下降,但减排效果有明显差异.在单一措施控制情景下,淘汰黄标车和提高排放标准对两类污染物的削减效果明显,削减比例均在20%以上;而结构性控制措施对这两类污染物的削减尤为明显,削减比例达到40%以上且正向协同效应突出.

Co-control effects of motor vehicle pollutant emission in Shanghai

Based on the information for the vehicle traffic during 2007-2012 in Shanghai, the pollutant emissions of motor vehicles were calculated. Three scenarios for vehicle pollutant reduction control were designed by applying the co-control evaluation method, which are single measurement, structural measurement and integrated measurement, respectively. The results indicated that the vehicle pollutant emissions from 2007 to 2012 in Shanghai presented a decrease trend. Motorcycle (MC), light-duty gasoline vehicle (LDGV), heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDDT) and heavy-duty diesel vehicle (HDDV) were the major pollution sources, which accounted for more than 90% of the total vehicle emission. According to the growth rate of ownership of motor vehicles in Shanghai currently, the inhalable particulate matter (PM₁₀) emission from vehicle will increase by 7%, and the growth rate of greenhouse gas emission is between 15% and 108%, of which the carbon dioxide (CO₂) will increase by 45% in 2018. The pollutants and greenhouse gases would be reduced under three control scenarios, but the effectiveness of emission reductions had obvious differences. Under the single control measurement scenario, eliminating yellow label cars and releasing stringent emission standards would be more effective to reduce vehicle pollutants and greenhouse gases. The reduction rate could be more than 20%. Moreover, under the structural control measurement scenario, vehicle pollutants and greenhouse gases would be more effectively reduced the reduction rate being more than 40%, and the co-control effect would be obviously positive.