暴雨洪水相似性分析指标体系研究

在实际的防洪决策中,如何将历史暴雨洪水的特性和信息有效地组织和表达,实现与实时预报系统的无缝连接,真正发挥历史暴雨洪水在实时防洪决策中的作用,是提高洪水预报精度和时效,并进行科学的洪水调度决策的前提。本文将实时暴雨洪水与历史暴雨洪水的雨洪信息指标化,运用非平权距离系数法进行相似性分析,最终推选出与实时暴雨洪水相类似的历史暴雨洪水。通过研究与实时暴雨洪水相类似的历史暴雨洪水的发生发展趋势,预测实时暴雨洪水的趋势,从而为实时的洪水调度提供决策支持。本文以1998年松花江流域暴雨洪水为例进行分析,其结果具有较高精度和一定可信度。

A Study on the Index System for Storm-Flood Resemblance Analyzing

In the real process of flood control decision-making, it is the precondition of improving the precision of flood forecasting and implementing timely, scientifical and reasonable decision-making of flood control scheduling that effectively organize and express the characteristics and information so as to realize the seamless connection and fully make the best use of the historic storm flood in real-time flood control decision-making . This paper gives an index system for the real-time and historic storm-flood information, analyzes the resemblance with mathematic methods, and eventually gets the historic storm-flood similar to the real-time one. By studying the tendency of the resemblance between historic and real-time storm floods, the tendency of real time storm flood will be predicted to provide the decision-making for the real-time flood control scheduling. This paper takes an example of the storm flood occurred in Songhuajiang Basin in 1998 to make the concerned analysis and gets a good result.