新技术商业化的风险要素及其作用机理: 基于社会技术系统理论的实证研究

风险管理对新技术商业化项目的成长具有积极的影响, 但现有研究在深入考察企业新技术商业化活动面临的风险要素、 风险结构及其作用机理方面还存在不足. 社会技术系统理论被用来分析社会系统风险、技术系统风险与管理风险要素, 及其对企业新技术商业化项目绩效的影响. 应用结构方程模型进行实证研究, 结果表明: 1)社会子系统风险对技术子系统风险具有显著的正向影响; 2)技术子系统的风险增加会使项目管理的风险增加; 3)社会子系统风险对项目管理风险具有正向影响, 但不显著; 4)新技术商业化项目管理的风险越高, 项目成长的过程绩效就越低; 5)过程绩效对产品绩效具有显著正向影响.

Risk factors and its roles in new technology commercialization:Empirical study based on socio-technical system theory

Risk management has positive effect on the growth of new technology commercialization project. However, risk factors, risk structure and their roles in new technology commercialization are little considered in existing research. This paper employs socio-technical systems theory to analyze the effect of social system risk, technical system risk, and management risk on performance of new technology commercialization. Then, structural equation model is utilized to conduct empirical study. The results suggest: 1) Social system risk has a significantly positive effect on technical system risk. 2) The higher technical system risk, the higher management risk of projects. 3) Social system risk has a positive effect on project management risk, but not significantly. 4) The higher management risk of new technology commercialization projects, the lower process performance of project growth. 5) Process performance has a significantly positive effect on product performance.