| 新疆天山地区PP回归综合预报模型研究及预报效能评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵翠萍,王海涛.新疆天山地区PP回归综合预报模型研究及预报效能评价[J].地震,2000,20(4):79-85. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵翠萍 王海涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学技术大学地球和空间科学系,安徽,合肥,230026;新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆维吾尔自治区,乌鲁木齐,830011
2. 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆维吾尔自治区,乌鲁木齐,830011 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目!(95-0 4 -0 1 -0 1 -1 3) |
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| 摘 要： | 运用基于ＰＰ回归理论的数值型地震综合预报软件，对新疆天山地区进行了ＰＰ回归建模研究，通过回顾性ＰＰ回归动态建模预测检验，对其预报效能进行了评价。结果认为，该模型作为时序性数值预报模型具有较好的中短期预报效能。尤其对地震样本量大、震级分布完备的地区，其预报效能更好。
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| 关 键 词： | PP回归模型 综合预报 效能评价 地震预报 |
Study and efficiency evaluation on the comprehensive forecasting model of projection pursuit regression for Tianshan area in Xinjiang |
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| ZHAO Cui-ping,WANG Hai-tao.Study and efficiency evaluation on the comprehensive forecasting model of projection pursuit regression for Tianshan area in Xinjiang[J].Earthquake,2000,20(4):79-85. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Cui-ping WANG Hai-tao |
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| Affiliation: | ZHAO Cui ping 1,2,WANG Hai tao 2 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the PPR prediction model was established and studied for the Tianshan area in Xinjiang by using the comprehensive forecasting software system of projection pursuit regression. Setting up dynamic PPR prediction model and review of prediction efficiency show that the comprehensive forecasting efficiency in the medium and short term earthquake prediction, especially in those areas where have enough earthquake data sample and moderate and strong earthquake cases, such as Kepin and Wuqia areas. |
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| Keywords: | PPR Model Comprehensive forecasting Efficiency evaluation |
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