利用改进的卡尔曼滤波器预测退化设备可靠性

针对退化设备可靠性预测的问题,采用加入次优渐消因子的卡尔曼滤波器预测设备未来时刻退化量均值,进而预测未来时刻的可靠性。本文给出了退化设备的可靠性预测方法和具体算法,这可为确定停机维护时间、维修费用等提供依据,具有重要意义。仿真实验验证了该方法的有效性。

Reliability Prediction of Deteriorating Equipments by Improved Kalman Filter

In order to predict the deteriorating equipment's reliability in the future,an improved Kalman filter with suboptimal fading factor is used to predict the mean of deteriorating values in the near future,therefore,the reliability of the equipments can be acquired.In this paper,a prediction method and specific algorithm for the reliability of deteriorating equipments are proposed.This method offers the possibility for determining the downtime of equipments and the cost of maintenance.A simulation example is u...