梅州市两次冬季暴雨过程分析

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP每6h1次2.5°×2.5°全球再分析资料以及国家气候中心统计产品,分析了1988年12月30-31日（简称过程1）和2013年12月15-16日（简称过程2）梅州市2次大范围冬季暴雨过程,为冬季暴雨的预报提供参考。结果表明,两次冬季暴雨过程都是发生在孟湾偏强南支槽东移过程中,梅州地区处于高空急流右侧的强辐散区和低层强低值系统边缘的风速辐合区,暴雨落区大体上沿副高西北侧边缘分布。赤道中东太平洋海域海温距平是否正常,是否出现典型的厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件或者处于中性状态,对梅州地区冬季暴雨过程的发生没有直接关系。

Analysis on Two Winter Rainstorm Process in Meizhou

Using the conventional meteorological data, NCEP every 6 hours 2.5°×2.5° global reanalysis data and the National Climate Center statistics products, Analysis of 30 - 31 December 1988 （ referred to as process 1 ） and 15 - 16 December 2013 （ referred to as process 2） two large winter storm process in Meizhou City have been made to provide a reference for forecasting winter rainstorm. It is shown that the two winter rainstorms are occurring in the bay of Bengal stronger Southern Branch trough eastward process. Meizhou is located in the strong divergence area right of the upper level jet system and lower edges of the strong low wind convergence zone. Rainstorm areas are generally distributed along the northwest side of the subtropical edge. The central and eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomaly is normal, Whether there is a typical E1 Nino / La Nina event or in a neutral state, the process of occurring winter rainstorm is not directly related Meizhou.