基于技术分析的主要高耗能产品单耗预测方法及展望

高耗能行业是重要的终端能源消费部门，研究该行业主要产品单耗变化趋势，对于把握中国能源消费走势意义重大。考虑节能技术推广、产能更新换代等影响，建立基于技术分析的产品单耗模型，预测“十四五”期间高耗能行业主要产品单耗。结果表明，2025年，高耗能行业主要产品中，水泥、钢铁、电解铝、氧化铝、精炼铜、合成氨、烧碱、电石单耗（标煤）分别为49、239、1 609、99、36、565、327、385 kg/t，较2020年分别下降7.0%、6.6%、2.1%、31.5%、16.3%、6.0%、5.0%、2.3%，其中产品单耗最高的是电解铝，下降幅度最大的是氧化铝。

Prediction Method and Prospect of Unit Consumption of Main High Energy Consuming Products Based on Technical Analysis

High energy consuming industry is an important terminal energy consumption sector. Studying the change trend of unit consumption of main products in this industry is of great significance to grasp the trend of China's energy consumption. Considering the impact of energy-saving technology promotion and production capacity upgrading, a product unit consumption model based on technical analysis is established to predict the unit consumption of main products in high energy consuming industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The results show that in 2025, the unit consumption of cement, steel, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, refined copper, synthetic ammonia, caustic soda and calcium carbide in the main products of high energy consuming industries will be 49, 239, 1609, 99, 36, 565, 327 and 385 kg standard coal / ton respectively, down 7.0%, 6.6%, 2.1%, 31.5%, 16.3%, 6.0%, 5.0% and 2.3% respectively compared with 2020, among which electrolytic aluminum has the highest unit consumption while alumina has the largest decline.