闽南—台湾浅滩渔场中上层鱼类渔获量预报效果与相关因子分析

本文报道笔者应用已建立的预报方程,预报了1989—1997年闽南地区灯围春汛和夏汛的渔获量。其预报准确率春汛单位日渔获量为83.75—98.16％,平均为91.27％,春汛总渔获量为66.92—97.37％,平均为87.9％;夏汛单位日渔获量为73.71—99.97％,平均为90.10％,夏汛总渔获量为47.79—98.39％,平均为85.33％。同时根据1983—1997年渔业统计资料及所收集的环境因子等数据,应用回归分析方法,分析渔获量与相对资源量指标和捕捞力量及环境因子的相关关系。并对渔获量的丰歉进行了综合探讨。

Analysis of Relative Factors And Forecast Effect of The Cath of Pelagic Fish In Minnan-Taiwan Bank Fishing Ground

In this paper, it is reported that the catch of the light-seine net in Minna area in the spring fishing season (from March to June) and the summer (from July to September) from 1989 to 1997 were forecasted using the author established the forcast equations. Their forecast accurate rates are: The spring, the catch of day of unit ranged from 83.75 % to 98.16%, average 91.27 %, the total catch ranged from 66.92%-97.37%, average 87.90% . The summer, the catch of day of unit ranged 73.71% to 99.97%, average 90.10%, the total catch ranged from 47.79% to 98.39 % , a verage 85.33 % . And on the basis of the data of the fishery statistics and environmental factors from 1983 to 1997, the relationship of the catch and the relative resources index and the fishing effort and environmental factors are analysed by the regression analytical methed. The major factors of the catch are also sytheticly discussed.