广东省建筑业生产要素替代弹性的估算

改革开放以来，我国建筑业得到迅猛发展，其发展模式由粗放逐步走向集约，其投入关系也在发生变化。基于CES 生产函数模型，采用1993~2018 年统计数据，利用非线性回归的方法计量广东省建筑业资本—劳动替代弹性关系。发现广东省建筑业规模报酬递增，资本和劳动要素呈替代关系，同时通过分析两要素的投入变动率发现，广东省建筑业的资本和劳动要素之间的替代先后经历了快速替代期和要素投入结构的稳定期，而近年来却出现了资本劳动的反替代趋势。研究结果为建筑业劳动和资本之间的配置提供了有价值的信息与决策的参考。

Estimation of the Substitution Elasticity of Production Factors in Guangdong's Construction Industry

China’s construction industry has gradually developed from an extensive type at the beginning of reform and opening up to the intensive type，with the investment relationship in this industry also changing. Based on the CES production function model， this paper uses the statistical data from 1993 to 2018，and uses the nonlinear regression method to measure the capital-labor substitution elasticity relationship in Guangdong’s construction industry. It is found that Guangdong’s construction industry is under increasing scale returns，and capital and labor factors in the construction industry of Guangdong Province are in a substitution relationship. Meanwhile，by analyzing the input change rate of the two elements，it is found that the substitution between capital and labor elements in the construction industry in Guangdong Province has experienced a rapid replacement period and a stable period of structure of input elements，but in recent years there has been an anti-substitution trend between capital and labor factors. The results of this study provide valuable information and decision-making references for the allocation of labor and capital in the construction industry.