中国洪涝灾害结构式与非结构式减灾措施耦合协调性研究

结构式与非结构式减灾措施是构成洪涝灾害防治体系的两个相互补充、相互促进的子系统，基于2008—2018年的面板数据，构建中国洪涝灾害结构式与非结构式减灾措施耦合协调度评价指标体系，引入耦合协调度模型测度中国洪涝灾害结构式与非结构式减灾措施建设水平以及两者间的耦合度和耦合协调度，以期进一步提升我国洪涝灾害防治体系的防灾减灾效能。结果表明：(1)2008—2018年国内洪涝灾害结构式与非结构式减灾措施的综合建设指数与耦合协调度成波动上升趋势，结构式与非结构式减灾措施的耦合协调水平有较大提升，实现了从失调衰退向初级协调发展的转变，整体呈现向好趋势；(2)国内洪涝灾害结构式与非结构式减灾措施两个子系统的综合建设指数差值成波动扩大态势，非结构式减灾措施建设长期滞后于结构式减灾措施，两者建设脱节现象愈发严重；(3)国内洪涝灾害结构式与非结构式减灾措施两个子系统相互作用中良性耦合程度较低。

Research on the Coupling and Coordination of Structural and Non-structured Flood Disaster Mitigation Measures in China

Structural and non-structural disaster mitigation measures are two mutually complementary and mutually promoting sub-systems that constitute the flood disaster prevention and control system,This paper analyzes the coupling interaction between the two,based on the panel data from 2008 to 2018,constructs an evaluation index system for the coupling coordination degree of structural and unstructured flood disaster mitigation measures in China,and introduces the coupling coordination degree model to measure the structural and unstructured flood disaster mitigation.The level of measure construction and the degree of coupling and coordination between the two.The results show that:①The comprehensive construction index and the coupling coordination degree of domestic flood disaster structural and non-structural disaster mitigation measures have fluctuated upward,and the coupling coordination level of structural and non-structural disaster mitigation measures is generally relatively higher.Great improvement,realizing the transition from imbalanced recession to primary coordinated development,showing a positive trend as a whole;②The difference in the comprehensive construction index of the two sub-systems of domestic flood disaster structural and non-structural disaster mitigation measures has fluctuated and expanded,and non-structural disaster mitigation.The construction of measures lags behind structural disaster mitigation measures for a long time,and the disconnection between the two is becoming more and more serious;③The degree of benign coupling in the interaction between the two subsystems of domestic flood disaster structural and non-structural disaster mitigation measures is relatively low.The research conclusions have certain guiding significance for China to further improve the flood disaster prevention system.