The relative age effect in a professional football club setting

Abstract

The relative age effect is an uneven distribution of birth date favouring subjects born in the initial months of a selection year. This study compared the birth-date distributions between several subgroups of Basque football players to identify whether the relative age effect is influenced by age and/or skill level. The study comprised 13,519 players including 114 senior professionals from the Spanish league's AC Bilbao over 21 seasons; over the season 2005–2006, it comprised elite youth (n = 189) from the same club's academy; regional youth (n = 4382) U11–U14 locally federated players; school youth (n = 8834) U10–U11 locally registered school district players. Differences between the observed and expected birth-date distributions were tested based on data from the general Basque male population. Significant chi-square values were followed up by calculating odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the quartile and half-year distributions to examine subgroup differences in the relative age effect. Birth-date distributions of all groups of players showed a significant bias towards early birth in the selection year compared with the reference population (senior, χ² ₃ = 24.4, P < 0.001; elite youth, χ² ₃ = 59.1, P < 0.001; regional youth, χ² ₃ = 41.4, P < 0.001; school youth, χ² ₃ = 40.9, P < 0.001). Between-group comparison revealed that the relative age effect incidence progressively increased with a higher level of involvement in youth football. This bias represents a significant loss of potential youth football talent.