天山北坡城市群碳储量时空变化及预测研究

为了有效评估城市群碳储量变化，以天山北坡城市群为研究对象，运用PLUS模型和InVEST模型，动态评估2000~2020年及2030年不同情景下土地利用变化及碳储量变化特征.结果表明，2000~2020年天山北坡城市群碳储量呈现持续增加趋势，且碳储量变化与土地利用变化密切相关，主要表现为2000~2010年林地面积的减少导致其碳储量减少约266×10⁶t，2010~2020年草地面积的增加使其碳储量增加约69.14×10⁶t.2030年自然发展情景、生态保护情景和经济快速发展情景下碳储量预测值分别为8875.88×10⁶t、8895.58×10⁶t和8841.58×10⁶t；经济快速发展情景下碳储量最低，生态保护情景下碳储量最高.土地利用是影响碳储量空间变化分布的第一主导因素，贡献率接近于90%，土地利用强度与碳储量协调性分析与两者双变量空间自相关分析进一步验证了这一结论.土地利用变化在一定程度上能够对碳储量产生积极影响，对于本研究区而言，生态保护发展情景可能更符合未来城市发展模式，研究结果能够为土地利用规划提供参考.

Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of carbon storage in urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains

In order to effectively assess carbon stock changes in urban agglomerations, the PLUS model and the InVEST model were used in this study to dynamically assess land use changes and carbon stock changes under different scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and in 2030 in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains. The results revealed that the carbon stock of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains showed a continuous increasing trend from 2000 to 2020, which was closely related to the land use change. Specifically, the decrease in forest land area from 2000 to 2010 led to a decrease in carbon stock by about 266×10⁶t, and the increase of grassland area from 2010 to 2020 gave rise to an increase in carbon stock by about 69.14×10⁶t. In 2030, the carbon stocks under scenarios of natural development, ecological protection and rapid economic development were 8875.88×10⁶t, 8895.58×10⁶t and 8841.58×10⁶t respectively, with the lowest carbon storage under rapid economic development scenario and the highest carbon storage under ecological protection scenario. Land use was the first dominant factor influencing the distribution of spatial changes in carbon stocks, with a contribution rate close to 90%, which was further verified by the analysis of the coordination between land use intensity and carbon stocks and the bivariate spatial autocorrelation between the two. To a certain extent, land use changes could exert a positive impact on carbon stocks. For the area in this study, the ecological conservation development scenario might be more in line with the future urban development pattern. As a result, the results of the study could provide some scientific reference for land use planning.