中国交通运输业碳达峰时间预测研究

交通运输业碳排放尽早达峰对中国实现总体碳达峰具有十分重要的作用。本文测算 2000—2019 年中国交通运输业碳排放水平，分析碳排放主要影响因素，构建拓展的 STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology)模型。在设置各主要影响因素增长水平的基础上，利用岭回归构建碳排放预测模型，并基于情景分析预测5种发展情景下交通运输业碳达峰情况。结果显示：基准情景下，中国交通运输业碳排放将于2035年达到峰值12.35亿t；强化低碳情景、一般低碳情景、一般高碳情景及绝对高碳情景下，中国交通运输业将分别在2030年、2032 年、2040年及2043年达到峰值，峰值量分别为10.31亿，11.00亿，14.01亿，16.47亿t。中国应采取有效措施，努力达到一般低碳或强化低碳情景，使交通运输业碳排放尽早达峰。

Carbon Dioxide Emission Peak Study of Transportation Industry in China

Reaching the carbon dioxide emissions peak in the transportation industry is significantly important for China to achieve the goal of overall carbon dioxide peak. This study evaluates the level of carbon dioxide emissions in transportation industry of China from 2000 to 2019, and develops an extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) model based on the main influencing factors of carbon emissions. Considering the growth level of each impact factor, this study predicts the carbon dioxide peak of transportation industry under five development scenarios using the carbon emission prediction model and ridge regression. The results show that if the current development trend is maintained, the carbon dioxide emissions peak of transportation industry in China will be approximately 12.35 billion tons in 2035. The carbon dioxide emissions will reach the peak of 10.31 billion tons in 2030 under the "enhanced low-carbon" scenario, the peak of 11.00 billion tons in 2032 under the "general low- carbon" scenario, the peak of 14.01 billion tons in 2040 under the "general high carbon"scenario, and the peak of 16.47 billion tons in 2043 under the "absolute high carbon" scenario. China should take effective measures to achieve "general low-carbon" scenario or "enhance low-carbon" scenario to enable the carbon emissions of the transportation industry reach the peak at the earliest.