基于复杂网络的地铁火灾风险链分析

轨道交通系统运营空间相对封闭，为保证地铁安全运营，探究风险间相互传递形成的链式效应意义重大. 基于风险链理论，对城市轨道交通火灾事件的风险因子、孕险环境、承载体特征展开研究，分析地铁火灾风险间相互传递形成的链式传导效应；建立地铁火灾风险链演化模型，采用复杂网络理论中出入度、子网节点数、中介中心性和紧密中心性4个评价指标，综合评估火灾风险网络节点重要度. 结果表明:模型中风险间传递性强，地铁车站内明火是风险控制的关键节点. 研究成果为从地铁火灾风险链角度控制风险传递，降低火灾传递过程中关键风险发生的概率提供理论支持，避免次生灾害和衍生灾害导致更严重的后果.

Risk chain analysis of subway fire based on complex network

The operating space of rail transit system is relatively closed. In order to ensure the safe operation of the subway, it is of great significance to explore the chain effect formed by the mutual transmission of risks. Based on the risk chain theory, the research on the risk factors, pregnancy risk environment, and carrier characteristics of urban rail transit fire events were conducted. The chain transmission effects formed by the mutual transfer of subway fire risks were analyzed. A subway fire risk chain evolution network model was established, four evaluation indicators in the complex network theory including access degree, numbers of subnet nodes, betweenness centrality and tight centrality were adopted, and the importance of fire risk network nodes was comprehensively evaluated. The results show that there is strong transmissibility between model risks, and the open fire in the subway station is the key node for risk control. The research results can provide theoretical support for controlling risk transmission from the perspective of subway fire risk chain, reduce the probability of key risks in the process of fire transmission, and avoid more serious consequences caused by secondary disasters and derivative disasters.