中国碳交易市场回顾与展望

2017年12月19日，首先纳入发电行业的全国碳排放权交易体系正式启动，1万吨标煤的准入门槛使全国碳市场几乎涵盖了所有主要火电企业。全国碳市场短期内虽然不会产生明显效果，但长期来看，将通过倒逼发电行业优化结构来促进低碳发展。对中国碳市场建设的相关政策发展及进程进行梳理，分析各个试点碳市场的市场表现及履约情况，通过对其配额和CCER交易情况进行总结，分析各个试点市场的政策效果，并对全国碳市场的发展进行展望。截至2017年12月底，全国7个试点的碳市场累计完成线上配额交易量逾1.35亿吨，达成交易额逾20亿元，为全国碳市场的建立积累了一定的经验。2017年，7个试点碳市场交易活跃度有所提高，但依然存在大量交易集中于履约期前后的情况。重庆碳市场一改以往低迷的市场表现，交易量和活跃度增加迅速；天津碳市场因全年长时间休市，交易量较低；湖北超过广东成为交易量最大的试点碳市场，交易集中度也为7个试点中最低。2018年是全国碳市场的基础建设期，各试点碳市场将继续并行运行，全国碳市场在实际的配额交易前将进行为期一年左右的模拟交易。碳市场的机制设计是一个需要不断完善的过程，要真正发挥全国碳市场降低碳减排成本和促进碳排放量下降的作用还需要至少两三年的时间。

Review and Prospect of China's Carbon Trading System

On December 19,2017,the national carbon emissions trading system(ETS) was officially launched,which will firstly include only the power generation industry. With 10 000 tons of coal equivalent consumption as the entry threshold,China''s national carbon market is bound to cover almost all the major thermoelectric enterprises. Although the national ETS would not have a significant impact in the short term,in the long run,it should push forward the low-carbon development by forcing the power generation industry to optimize its structure. This paper reviews the policy making progress and construction process of carbon market in China,analyzes the market performance of each pilot carbon market,summarizes the emission quota and CCER transactions,analyzes the effect of each pilot''s ETS policy,and reviews and outlooks the development of the national ETS. By the end of December 2017,China''s seven pilot carbon markets have accomplished more than 135 million tons of emission quota trading which accounts for more than 2 billion Chinese Yuan. This accumulated certain amount of experience for the establishment of the national ETS. In 2017,the transaction activity in the seven pilot carbon markets has increased. Nevertheless,there was still a large number of transactions concentrated around the compliance period. Chongqing''s pilot carbon market performed much more active than before,which accomplished a rapidly increased trading volume and transaction activity. However,due to a long time without trading,Tianjin''s pilot carbon market performed even worse in 2017. Hubei surpassed Guangdong to become the pilot carbon market with the largest trading volume and the lowest concentration of transactions. In 2018,the national ETS will be under construction,and during this period,these seven pilot carbon markets will continue to run simultaneously. There will be yearlong simulated transaction before the actual emission quota trading. The mechanism design of the carbon market is a process that needs continuous improvement,which will take at least two or three years for the carbon market to play its role in reducing the cost of carbon emission reduction as well as reducing the carbon emissions in China.