生态保护红线区生态系统服务多维驱动力的定量分离

生态系统服务的时空变化受环境因子和服务间权衡/协同两个维度的驱动。在保障区域与国家生态安全、经济与社会可持续发展的生态保护红线区,厘清生态系统服务的驱动机制对该区生态系统的管理优化尤为重要。本文以北京生态保护红线区为例,考虑土壤保持、产水量和植被固碳3项生态系统服务,运用地理探测器判断并识别生态系统服务间关系的影响变量,进而基于偏相关方法定量分离并比较服务间净关系与环境变量两个维度对生态系统服务的影响。结果表明：对任一生态系统服务而言,环境变量和服务间关系对其空间异质性有不同程度的影响,且两种变量之间的交互作用均会增强单一变量对该生态系统服务空间分异的决定力。各服务形成过程的差异性使得影响服务间关系的重要环境因子存在区别,但土地利用强度均是3对服务空间关系的极重要因子,表明北京生态保护红线区土地利用的合理规划对该区生态系统服务的协同优化至关重要。剔除极重要因子后比较服务间净关系与环境变量对生态系统服务的影响,结果发现：环境变量（坡度和降水）对土壤保持时空变化的驱动力更强;降水和植被固碳服务两个维度对产水量的影响相近;植被固碳的时空变化与其他两项服务密切相关,环境变量的影响相对较小。

Quantitative separation of multi-dimensional driving forces of ecosystem services in the ecological conservation red line area

Spatial and temporal variations in ecosystem services (ESs) are driven by two dimensions, environmental factors and trade-off/synergy between services. In the ecological conservation red line area that can guarantee regional and national ecological security and sustainable economic and social development, it is particularly important to clarify the driving mechanism of ESs for the management and optimization of ecosystem. Taking Beijing's ecological conservation red line area as an example, this study considers soil conservation, water yield and vegetation carbon sequestration, and uses Geodetector to identify the influencing factors of the relationship between the three ESs. Then, based on the partial correlation method, the impact of the net relationship between services and environmental variables on ESs is quantitatively separated and compared. Results show that trade-offs and environmental variables have varying degrees of influence on the spatial heterogeneity of ESs, and their interactions can enhance the decisive power of the corresponding individual variable. The differences in the formation process of various services make the factors that affect the relationship between services different, but the land use intensity is the most important factor for the spatial relationship between the three services, indicating that the rational planning of land use is crucial to the coordinated optimization of ESs in the Beijing's ecological conservation red line area. After removing the extremely important factors, the net relationship between services and the impact of environmental variables on ESs were compared. It is found that environmental variables (slope and precipitation) had stronger driving force on the spatio-temporal change of soil conservation. Precipitation and vegetation carbon sequestration have similar effects on water yield. Spatial and temporal changes in vegetation carbon sequestration, with relatively small effects from environmental variables, were closely related to the other two services.