基于多源数据整合的广西拐卖妇女儿童犯罪多维时空特征及其形成机制

文章聚焦于中国拐卖妇女儿童犯罪高发省份广西，整合公益平台“宝贝回家”数据、“中国裁判文书网”的拐卖犯罪案例，以及基于搜索引擎获取的历年新闻报道的重特大拐卖案件等多源数据资料，运用数理统计、案例分析、空间分析等方法，多维度探究广西拐卖妇女儿童犯罪的时空格局及形成机制。结果表明：1）犯罪人以男性为主，集中于20~55岁年龄段，受教育程度较低，团伙特征明显；被害人以男性婴幼儿为主，在年龄上表现出低龄高峰（婴幼儿）和大龄次峰（妇女）的“双峰”特征；收买人文化程度以初中及以下为主，职业以农民或无业居多。2）犯罪的年际变化整体呈现“沙丘”型变化趋势，分为低发期、高发期、中高位波动期和持续下降期4个阶段。3）市域尺度下，被拐未成年人数量与该市人口数量普遍呈正相关；拐卖路径上，拐出路径整体呈现“以桂为源，粤闽及华北为汇”的格局，拐入广西的路径以“周边邻近拐入和跨境中转拐入”为主，性别对拐卖路径分异影响较大，男童主要被拐入闽粤，区域相对集中，女童主要被拐入粤闽桂冀鲁，分散度较高。4）特殊的地理区位造就独特的社会经济文化环境，在各种推拉力的综合作用下，造成广西拐卖妇女儿童犯罪的发生与扩张，最终形成独特的广西拐卖妇女儿童犯罪网络。

Multidimensional Spatiotemporal Patterns and Formation Mechanism of Trafficking in Women and Children in Guangxi Province Based on Multi-Source Data Integration

The study is based on multi-source data of the public welfare platform "Baby Coming Home" website, trafficking case data from "China Judgments Online," and the major historical cases of trafficking detected by search engines, with a focus on Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, a province with a high incidence of women and children trafficking in China. It uses mathematical statistics, case analysis, spatial analysis, and other methods to explore the spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors of the trafficking of women and children in Guangxi. The results show that: 1) The perpetrators are mainly male, in the 20-55 age group, with low education levels and obvious gang characteristics. Regarding age, the victims show "double peak" characteristics of the young peak (infants), in which the infants are mainly male, and the older secondary peak (women). The buyers' education level is mainly junior high school or below, and most are farmers or unemployed. 2) The inter-annual change in the trafficking of women and children in Guangxi shows a "dune" trend, which is divided into four stages: low incidence, high incidence, medium high fluctuation, and continuous decline periods. 3) At the city level, the number of trafficked minors is generally positively correlated with the population of the city. Regarding the trafficking routes, the overall trafficking path shows the pattern of "Guangxi is the source area, and Guangdong, Fujian, and North China are the main confluence areas." The trafficking routes into Guangxi mainly show the characteristics of "surrounding and cross-border trafficking." Gender has a great impact on the trafficking path. The boys mainly turned to Fujian and Guangdong, which are relatively concentrated, and the girls mainly turned to Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi, Hebei and Shandong, which are highly dispersed. 4) The special geographical location creates a unique social, economic, and cultural environment in Guangxi. Under the combined action of various pushing and pulling forces, the trafficking of women and children in Guangxi has occurred and expanded, and finally formed a unique criminal network.