大型活动散场交通流的时空消散规律

研究了大型活动散场时观众离开活动场所的客流规律,并在此基础上根据观众步行速度概率分布,确定了观众到达停车场的流量分布规律;结合停车场的空间分布和活动场所周边道路交通条件,得出活动场所周边道路各路段散场时段的交通流随时间变化的规律,从而建立了大型活动交通流时空消散模型;另外,结合某大型活动散场时段交通流调查结果,对该模型进行了应用示例和精度检验。结果表明:该模型预测结果的误差非常小,可为大型活动的交通组织管理方案的制定提供依据。

Traffic Flow Time Space Dissipation Rule Under Large-scale Activity

Analyzing pedestrian flow and walking speed statistical distribution of audience when audience left under large-scale activity dissipation,traffic flow volume distribution rule of audience coming in parks could be predicted.Then,according to parks spatial distribution and traffic condition of peripheral road of stage,authors found the variation rule of traffic flow vs time under large-scale activity dissipation at each section of peripheral road;established traffic flow time space dissipation models under large-scale activity.Otherwise,investigated results of traffic flow under a large-scale activity dissipation were used to test the accuracy and applied example of these models.The results show that these models have small errors in result forecast and can be taken as the basis of establishment on traffic management scheme for a large-scale activity.