青海湖流域水资源系统动力学模型构建及其应用

在分析青海湖流域水资源和社会系统相关要素的基础上,采用系统动力学方法,构建了青海湖流域水资源系统动力学模型,并对青海湖流域生态保护与综合治理工程实施前后,青海湖流域水资源承载力与环境状况进行动态仿真及趋势预测。根据青海湖1959—2000年历年水量平衡数据运行模型,得出的各个变量时间序列数据与实测数据误差均在6%以内,其中实测水位与模型计算水位误差均为4.3%。表明模型能够反映青海湖水量平衡系统的实际特征,可以用来预测未来各种流域治理方案实施后的动态发展过程。预测模型结果显示,青海湖流域人类活动耗水从工程实施前2008年的0.48×108m3增加到工程完成后2017年的2.60×108m3。由于人工降水增加入湖水量,2050年青海湖水位将达到的3 190.2 m,下降趋势减缓。

Establishment and Application of System Dynamics Model of Water Resources in Qinghai Lake Basin

A study was performed to establish a system dynamics model of water resources using the system dynamics methodology based on the correlative factor analysis of water resources and social systems in Qinghai Lake Basin.The model was applied to simulate and forecast the development trend of water resources carrying capacity and the environmental scenario before and after completion of the ecological protection and comprehensive management engineering in Qinghai Lake Basin.The established model was validated by the historical water balance data in 1959-2000.Result showed that the error of time series variation was below 6%,and the error of water level was 4.3%,indicating that the model can describe the actual characteristics of water balance system in Qinghai Lake Basin,so it can forecast the dynamic development of Lake Qinghai basin after the completion of comprehensive control countermeasures.The predicted results also showed that water consumption by human activities in Qinghai Lake Basin would increase from 4.80×107m3 in 2008 before project implementation to 2.60×108m3 in 2017 after project completion.Due to the fact that artificial rainfall can increase the inflow volume to the lake,the water level of Qinghai Lake in 2050 will reach 3190.2m,and the decreasing trend will slow down.