生态脆弱区社会—生态景观恢复力时空演变及情景模拟

从最具操作性的景观尺度探究社会—生态系统恢复力的时空分异及其演变,对于揭示人类活动变化对生态环境及其景观服务的影响机制,促进区域可持续发展意义重大。以黄土丘陵沟壑区米脂县作为典型案例地,从生态、社会、生产3个系统维度构建社会—生态景观恢复力评价指标体系,分析研究区各子系统和整体社会—生态景观恢复力时空演变及其相互关系。结果显示：① 研究区2000-2015年社会—生态景观3子系统恢复力空间分异显著且都有增强。其中,“退耕还林”第1阶段（2000-2009年）增强突出,生态、社会、生产三系统恢复力指数分别上升0.134、0.048、0.028;第2阶段（2009-2015年）增强相对减缓,生态、社会、生产三系统恢复力指数分别上升0.038、0.017、0.021。② 总体社会—生态景观恢复力空间分异同样显著,其恢复力指数上升11.60%,呈现中间高东西低的空间格局。③ 子系统与整体景观系统恢复力变化之间有主导性正向关系,且3个子系统恢复力变化协同关系显著,两个或三个系统协同率达到90%以上。最后,运用有序加权平均法,基于干扰指标与适应能力指标的不同权重设置情景偏好,绘制出“不可持续导向型”“维持现状型”和“可持续导向型”3种情景下的社会—生态景观恢复力模拟图,为区域景观适应性管理提供决策支持。

The resilience evolution and scenario simulation of social-ecological landscape in the fragile area

It is of fundamental significance to reveal the influencing mechanism of changes in human activities on ecological environment and landscape services, and to promote regional sustainable development that explores spatio-temporal variation and evolution of social-ecological resilience at the most operable landscape scale. Taking the loess hilly-gully region of Mizhi county as an example, this paper constructed an evaluation index system of social-ecological landscape resilience from the three dimensions of ecosystem, society system, and production system. The resilience of spatial-temporal evolution of the social-ecological landscape and subsystems were analyzed in this area along with their mutual relationships. The following results were obtained from this study: (1) During 2000-2015, the spatial distribution of the three subsystems resilience was prominently distinct and significantly strengthened. Among them, the resilience was significantly enhanced in the first stage of "Grain for Green Project" (2000-2009), and the resilience index of the three systems increased by 0.134, 0.048 and 0.028, respectively. (2) The spatial distribution of resilience on social-ecological landscape was also significantly distinct and the resilience index increased by 11.60%. The spatial distribution of resilience on social-ecological landscape presents a pattern of "high in center and low in eastern and western parts". (3) The positive relationships between the changes of the subsystems resilience and landscape system resilience were dominant, and the synergistic relationship between the resilience of the subsystems was obvious. The synergy rate of two or three systems is over 90%. In this study, OWA method was applied based on different weights of interference and adaptive ability indexes to set up situational preferences. Following this, simulation diagrams of social-ecological landscape resilience of the unsustainably oriented scenario, the current situation oriented scenario and sustainably oriented scenario were mapped, which provide a decision support for the adaptive management of regional landscape.