中间产品贸易网络结构及其演化的影响因素探究——基于贸易成本视角

随着经济全球化不断地扩展和加深,生产分工进入产品内分工阶段,中间产品贸易所占比重逐渐增加。中间产品贸易是产品内分工的主要表现形式。论文选取了纺织业、运输业和电子产业分别作为劳动力密集型产业、传统全球分工产业和技术密集型产业的代表,研究其贸易网络结构的特征与演化趋势。并以中国为中心的中间产品贸易网络为例,探究了影响贸易网络变化的因素。研究表明：① 3种产业的中间产品贸易网络结构有明显差异,电子产业网络联系紧密,而运输业和纺织业的结构则相对松散。② 1998—2017年,中国在全球贸易网络中的地位明显提升。③ 从影响中间产品贸易网络结构的因素来看：地理距离对中间产品出口偏好的影响显著,但是仅纺织业体现出了地理距离衰减效应,在电子和运输业中,地理距离越大,贸易偏好反而越高;沟通成本显著影响中国对目的地国家的出口偏好,中国文化在目的地国家推广能够提高贸易偏好;目的国制度质量对贸易偏好的影响显著,国家的话语权和可靠性能够提高中国对目的地国家的中间产品出口偏好,但同时,规制的质量越高,中国对其出口偏好则更低。④ 劳动力成本的差异在3种产业中均体现出十分重要的作用。

Structure and change of international trade network of intermediate goods: From the perspective of trade costs

With the expansion and continuous deepening of globalization, more countries are involved in the trend. In the meantime, the segregation of production has entered the stage of intra-product specialization. Trade of intermediate goods, as an embodiment of intra-product specialization, is taking up a growing proportion of global trade. In this study, we examined the structure and change of the intermediate goods trade network of textile industry, automobile industry, and electronic industry as typical examples of labor-intensive industry, traditional globalized industry, and tech-intensive industry, respectively. Then, we took China's exportation network as an example and looked into the factors that influenced its change. The results are as follows: 1) Structures of the three networks of difference industries show great heterogeneity—the network of electronics is more condensed, while the other two are looser. 2) During 1998-2017, China had been playing an increasingly more significant role in the global intermediate goods trade network. 3) Geographic distance significantly influences trade preference, yet only in the textile industry does the distance attenuation effect stand; Lower communication cost significantly increases trade preference and promotion of Chinese culture also increases trade preference; Institution of destination countries significantly influences trade preference—stronger voice and accountability of the state increases trade preference, while higher institutional quality repulses trade preference. Labor cost also affects trade preference significantly.