城市快速过境通道衔接节点交通风险耦合致因模型研究

为了定量分析城市快速过境通道衔接节点交通风险致因，基于2010—2017年云南发生的731起城市快速过境通道衔接节点交通事故数据，将运行风险分为人、车、路、环、管5个方面并选取耦合因素；综合使用熵权法、TOPSISI法及N-K模型，构建TOPSIS-N-K耦合度模型度量单因素、双因素及多因素耦合度，并以云南城市快速过境通道衔接节点为例进行分析验证。研究结果表明:强耦合会使风险造成的后果更严重，交通风险随耦合因素增多而升高；2010年以来衔接节点交通风险由无序向有序化发展，安全性逐年提升；风险耦合人的因素中“不良车道变换”与其他要素的耦合通常表现为强耦合，路的因素中“纵坡坡度”与其他要素耦合度较高，应加强人、路因素中车道、纵坡及限速方面规范建设。

Research on coupling cause model of traffic risk in connecting nodes of urban rapid transit channels

In order to quantitatively analyze the causes of traffic risk in the connecting nodes of urban rapid transit channels,based on the data of 731 traffic accidents in the connecting nodes of urban rapid transit channels in Yunnan from 2010 to 2017,the operational risk were divided into five aspects: human,vehicle,road,environment and management,and the coupling factors were selected.The entropy weight method,TOPSISI method and N-K model were comprehensively used to construct the TOPSIS-N-K coupling degree model to measure the coupling degree of single factor,double factors and multiple factors,and the analysis and verification were conducted by taking the connecting nodes of urban rapid transit channels in Yunnan as examples.The results showed that the strong coupling would make the consequence of risk more serious,and the traffic risk would increase with the increase of the coupling factors.Since 2010,the traffic risk of the connecting nodes had developed from disorder to ordering,and the safety had been improved year by year.In the risk coupling,the coupling of “bad lane change” in the human factors with other elements usually presented the strong coupling,while the coupling degree of “longitudinal gradient” in the road factors with other elements were higher,so the standard construction of lanes,longitudinal slope and speed limit in the human and road factors should be strengthened.