流域系统综合模拟与情景分析——自然地理综合研究的新范式?

在全球环境变化和经济快速发展的背景下,经济发展与资源环境保护之间的矛盾日益激化,为解决或减弱这一矛盾,管理者需要新的知识体系和科学的决策工具。自然地理综合研究以自然地理要素空间变化及交互过程为主要研究内容,肩负着提供管理者所需新知识体系和科学决策工具的责任。流域作为空间上相对封闭的自然地理单元,其相对独立性为管理者的决策提供了天然的空间单元。流域内各地理要素的空间分布及其过程的交互机理自然成为管理者解决日益激化的矛盾所需的新知识体系,而流域系统综合模拟恰恰为建立这样的知识体系提供了极为有效的研究方式;在管理者评价各种决策的成效时,必须知道各种决策所产生的经济和环境效益,基于流域系统综合模拟的情景分析为管理者提供了所需要的科学决策工具。因此,从解决经济发展与资源环境保护之间矛盾的角度出发,流域系统综合模拟与情景分析应该成为新时代背景下自然地理学综合研究的新范式。文章结合2个小流域情景分析的研究案例,探讨了以流域系统综合模拟与情景分析为核心的现代自然地理综合研究需要解决的科学挑战,即流域系统综合模拟的系统化、空间化、定量化、易用化和决策化。

Integrated watershed modeling and scenario analysis: A new paradigm for integrated study of physical geography?

In the context of the changing global environment and rapidly developing economies, the conflict between economic development and resource/environmental conservation is becoming severe. To resolve or relieve the conflict, decision makers need a new knowledge system and scientific decision-making tools. The integrated study of physical geography, which takes the spatial variation and interaction processes of natural geographic elements as main research contents, has the responsibility of providing the new knowledge system and scientific decision-making tools for decision makers. As a relatively closed and independent spatial unit, the watershed provides a natural spatial unit for decision making. The spatial distribution of geographic elements and the mechanism of their interaction processes inside a watershed become the new knowledge system to resolve or relieve this increasingly intensified conflict. Integrated watershed modeling has become an effective way to build this new knowledge system. The effectiveness of different decisions considering the economic and environmental benefits should be evaluated for decision makers before a final decision, which can be provided by a scenario analysis based on integrated watershed modeling. Therefore, from the perspective of resolving or relieving the conflict between economic development and resource/environmental conservation, integrated watershed modeling and scenario analysis is developing into a new paradigm for the integrated study of physical geography in the new era. In this article, the scientific challenges of the integrated study of physical geography based on integrated watershed modeling and scenario analysis were discussed through two case studies of scenario analysis for watershed management, which basically represent two types of questions that decision makers are concerned with. The first type of questions is which kinds of best management practices (BMPs) should be selected, where these BMPs should be allocated, and what economic and environmental benefits are after the implementation of these BMPs. The second type of questions is that under the given objectives of economic and environmental benefits, where the selected BMPs should be allocated and how large spatial extents they should occupy. In conclusion, the integrated study of physical geography based on integrated watershed modeling and scenario analysis should have the characteristics of systematization, spatialization, quantification, ease of use, and decision-making friendly.