电网大停电交通拥堵度评估模型及方法研究

针对大停电事故对路网交通拥堵产生严重影响和恶劣后果的背景,根据交通流特性,从路段和交叉口两个方面建立基本路段交通拥堵度评估指标体系;同时提出大停电后各个评价指标的计算模型和量化方法。在此基础上,采用突变级数评价法对基本路段拥堵度进行评估;并以车辆行驶里程(VKT)作为权重对路网体系中各基本路段进行加权,进而得到大停电后路网的交通拥堵度水平。最后以典型大停电区域为例,对不同停电时间下路网交通拥堵度水平进行量化评估;且评估结果与有关交通部门的统计情况相吻合,验证了该评估模型和方法的正确性、实用性。

Research on model and method for power grid blackout traffic congestion degree evaluation

Abstract:With the background of severe influence and consequences of traffic congestion in road network caused by blackout, this paper established basic road traffic congestion degree evaluation index system considering both road and crossing conditions basing on the fluency of traffic. Meanwhile, the calculation model and quantitative method of each evaluation index are proposed, hence the evaluation of basic road congestion degree is done via mutation series evaluation method . Further more, the traffic congestion degree of road network after blackout is obtained by weighting each basic road in the network with vehicle kilometers of travel(VKT) as the weight. Finally, a typical blackout area is illustrated to quantize the road congestion degree under various blackout durations. The evaluation result matches with the statistic data published by the department of traffic, verifying the validity and practicability of the evaluation model and method.