高压天然气储运管道泄漏定量风险评估研究

为了评估某在役天然气管道与某房地产新建项目邻近段发生天然气管道泄漏的风险,该研究利用中国科学研究院CASST-QRA定量风险模拟软件,进行了管道泄漏定量风险评估,开展了个人风险、社会风险和事故后果模拟等研究工作.结果表明:该项目管道个人风险水平高于容许下限(1×10-6 a-1),影响间距94.5 m,拟建1#～4#建...

The study on quantitative risk assessment of high pressure natural gas storage and transportation pipelines leakage

In order to assess the possible pipeline leakage risks of the neighboring section for gas storage and transportation pipeline in service with a new project,CASST-QRA quantitative risk degree simulation software was used to evaluate the quantitative risk of pipeline leakage in this project section.Researches on personal risk,social risk and accident consequence simulation were carried out for this sections in the project.The results show that:The personal risk level of pipeline in this project is higher than the allowable lower limit(1×10^-6 a^-1),and the influence distance is 94.5 m.The proposed buildings 1^#~4^# are in the lowest possible zone,and should be adjusted to out of the probability value IR=3×10^-6 a^-1.The project may cause more than 100 deaths,the cumulative frequency is less than 1×E-06,and its social risk contour is in the lowest possible zone.The main disaster modes of natural gas storage and transportation pipelines leakage were jet fire and cloud explosion.The influence radii were different as the leakage and disaster mode changed.In the situation of that the disaster mode was cloud explosion,and the leakage mode was large-hole leakage or complete rupture,the most serious consequences would be resulted.As parameters set,the radii of death,serious and minor injury were 54 m,97 m and 161 m,respectively.Wind speed and ground conditions have obvious influence on the consequences of pipe accidents with middle hole leakage,large hole leakage and complete rupture.The results in this study have certain guiding significance for the planning and layout of urban oil-gas pipelines,improving the safety of urban construction.