辽宁省农业干旱灾害风险评价及分区

针对选取农业干旱灾害风险指标时欠考虑农业生产过程中的非气象因素的问题,以辽宁省14个地级市为例,综合考虑农业干旱灾害致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性、地区防旱抗旱能力四个因素,选择合理的指标体系,以自然灾害指数法为基础,结合加权综合评价法和变异系数法,建立了农业干旱灾害风险评价模型,对辽宁省农业干旱灾害风险进行了评价,并借助GIS软件绘制了辽宁省农业干旱灾害风险分布图。结果表明,辽宁省西部地区的农业干旱灾害风险高于东部地区,其中西部的朝阳市和阜新市的农业干旱灾害风险最高。

Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Liaoning Province

Due to the problem of less considering non meteorological factors when selecting the agricultural drought disaster risk index in the process of agricultural production, taking 14 cities in Liaoning Province for an example, this paper establishes agricultural drought risk assessment model of Liaoning Province by choosing reasonable index system. Based on the natural disaster index method, this model comprehensively considers four factors: danger of agricultural drought hazard causing factor, exposure and vulnerability of disaster bodies, and drought mitigation capability. Combination of comprehensive weighted evaluation method and variation coefficient method is used to evaluate agricultural drought risk in Liaoning Province. The agricultural drought risk distribution graph of Liaoning Province is plotted by using GIS software. The results show that the agricultural drought risk in western region of Liaoning Province is higher than that of eastern region; Chaoyang City and Fuxin City in western region have the highest agricultural drought risk.