基于模糊集对法的乌鲁木齐市水资源短缺风险评价

为评价城市水资源短缺风险，以5个风险指标建立了乌鲁木齐市水资源短缺风险评价模型，基于2004～〖JP〗2010年用水量资料与随机模拟的供水量资料，结合指定情境采用模糊集对评价方法对评价模型进行求解，并与模糊综合评价法、灰关联分析法、模糊物元评价法的评价结果进行了比较。结果表明，模糊集对评价方法合理简便，乌鲁木齐市水资源短缺风险从2004年的低风险向2010年较高风险发展，未来乌鲁木齐市水资源短缺风险将持续保持在高风险下，可见乌鲁木齐市实施外部引水和内部节水措施刻不容缓。

Risk Evaluation of Water Resources Shortage in Urumqi Based on SPA VFS

To assess the risk of urban water resources shortage, the risk evaluation model of Urumqi water resources shortage was established by using five risk indicators. Based on water consumption data during 2004~2010 and stochastic simulation water supply data, combined with the specified scenarios, the model was solved by using fuzzy set pair analysis. Moreover, the method was compared with fuzzy set evaluation model (FSE), gray correlation analysis (GCA), fuzzy extension evaluation model (FEE). The results show that fuzzy set pair analysis is more reasonable and easy to be implemented; the shortage risk of Urumqi water resources rises from low risk) in 2004 to higher risk in 2010; Urumqi future risk of water resources shortages will maintain high risk continuously. Thus, the external water diversion and internal water saving measures should be implemented without delay.