历史地理视角下丝绸之路空间格局及影响研究

已有的“一带一路”相关研究已逐步引起了学界对历史文化资源于今日发展影响的关注，然而作为“一带一路”倡议的历史依托和出发点，丝绸之路相关量化研究仍处于起步阶段。从文明的角度来说，如何认识丝绸之路是当代中国理解全球的关键。运用OLS、Logistic回归等手段，定量探讨了丝绸之路路线的形成动因以及其对历史及当代的影响。结果表明：① 丝绸之路道路密度分布总体处于波动状态，在以罗马、长安、大都为代表的交通网络起始点以及撒马尔罕、塔什干为代表的内线重要中转枢纽处密度数值大幅提高。② 作为商业贸易通道，丝绸之路路线选择影响最大的因素是地理因子，主要倾向于低坡度、高起伏度的地区，这一点在中亚复杂山地地形中表现得尤为明显。③ 丝绸之路的开辟与通畅，对当时社会经济、城市发展起到了显著的作用。丝绸之路道路密度同距最近海岸距离、纬度、历史文明指数等指标一道构成了古代城市分布的主要影响因素。④ 丝绸之路对区域经济发展的正面影响具有一定的持续性，其对今日经济的发展仍起着难以否认的支撑作用。丝绸之路道路密度每增加1%，所在区域夜间灯光指数增加0.373。本文通过横跨历史学、地理学、经济学的探索能够很好地提供差异化理论视角和技术手段助益，为相关研究的开展起到一定的参考与启发作用，同时也为“一带一路”相关理论的完善提供理论支撑与历史证明。

Spatial distribution of the Silk Roads and influence from the perspective of historical geography

The existing "B&R" studies have gradually drawn attention to the influence of historical and cultural resources on today's development. However, as the historical support and starting point of the Belt and Road Initiative, the quantitative studies related to the Silk Roads are still in their initial stage. From a civilizational perspective, how the Silk Road is understood is key to contemporary China's understanding of the global situation. Using OLS Regression, Logistic Regression and other means, we quantitatively explored the driving factors influencing the formation of the Silk Roads and Silk Roads' influence on the historical and contemporary world. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) The density distribution of the Silk Roads is generally fluctuating. The density value has increased significantly at the starting points of the transportation network represented by Rome, Chang'an, and Dayidu, and the important internal transit hubs represented by Samarkand and Tashkent. (2) The analysis of the influencing factors of the Silk Roads shows that, as a commercial trade route, the most influential factor on its route selection is geography, which mainly favors areas with low slope and high ruggedness, and this is especially evident in the complex mountainous terrain of Central Asia. (3) The opening and unobstruction of the Silk Roads played a significant role in the socio-economic, and urban development in history. The density of the Silk Roads, together with the distance from the nearest coastline, latitude, historical civilization index and other indicators, constituted the main influencing factors for the distribution of ancient cities. (4) The positive impact of the Silk Roads on regional economic development has a certain persistence, and the Silk Roads continue to play an undeniable role in supporting economic development today. For every 1% increase in road density of the Silk Roads, the night light index of the region where it is located increases by 0.373. This paper can provide differentiated theoretical perspectives and technical tools through the exploration of history, geography and economics, serve as a reference and inspiration for the development of related studies, and offer theoretical support and historical evidence for the improvement of the theory of "B&R".