塔里木河干流流域气候变化特征及其突变分析

以塔里木河干流流域为研究区域,选取流域内10个气象站点1961—2013年逐日地面气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith模型、气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验方法,分时段分析了塔里木河干流流域气候变化特征及其突变。结果表明,1塔里木河干流流域年平均气温为"突变点前增幅(0.09℃/10 a,p0.05)低于突变点后增幅(0.13℃/10 a,p0.05)",年干燥度为"突变点前减幅(4.05/10 a,p0.05)高于突变点后减幅(0.54/10 a,p0.01)",呈"冷干—暖湿—冷干"的变化趋势,1990年和1976年分别是年平均气温和干燥度的突变点。2塔里木河干流流域平均气温为"夏季春季秋季冬季"的时间分布,干燥度为"冬季秋季春季夏季"的时间分布,春季平均气温和干燥度均为"突变点前增幅(0.09℃/10 a,11.42/10 a)低于突变后增幅(0.52℃/10 a,14.01/10 a)",呈"冷干-暖湿-暖干"的变化趋势;夏、冬季为"突变点前变幅(0.02℃/10 a,-1.93/10 a;-0.25℃/10 a,-84.48/10 a)高于突变点后变幅(-0.01℃/10 a,-0.05/10 a;-0.12℃/10 a,22.14/10 a)",呈"冷干—暖湿—冷干"的变化趋势;秋季为"突变点前变幅(0.02℃/10 a,-56.76/10 a)低于(高于)突变点后变幅(0.05℃/10 a,-16.34/10 a)",呈"冷干—暖湿—冷湿"的变化趋势,2003年、1999年、1993年、1978年和1983年、1969年、1963年、1980年分别是四季平均气温和干燥度的突变点。3塔里木河干流流域年、季干燥度均在16以上。2000年后,年、夏、冬季冷干化明显,春季暖干化明显,秋季冷湿化明显,且秋、冬季平均气温减幅最大(0.53℃/10 a,p0.01;0.9℃/10 a,p0.01)。

Analysis of Change Characteristics and Mutation on Climate in the Main Stream of Tarim River

Based on the meteorological date from ten meteorological stations during 1961 to 2013 in the main stream of Tarim River,the changing characteristics and mutation on climate were analyzed by Penman-Monteith modem,climate inclination rate,Mann-Kendall method in the main stream of Tarim River at different timescale. The result showed that:①The increased range (0.09℃/10 a )on annual average air temperature before mutation point was lower than that after mutation point (0.13℃/10 a)and decreased range (4.05/10 a )on annual aridity in-dex was higher than that after mutation point (-0.54/10 a ),whose change tendency were"cold dry-warm moist-cold dry",and annual mutation point on annual average air temperature and aridity index were 1990 and 1976 in the main stream of Tarim River from 1961 to 2013.②The season distribution on average temperature was"sum-mer>spring>autumn>winter",and season distribution on aridity index was"winter>autumn>spring>sum- mer",and increased range (0.09 ℃/10 a,11 .42/10 a)on average temperature and aridity index before mutation point were lower than that after mutation point (-0.52 ℃/10 a,-14.01/10 a)in spring,whose change tendency were"cold dry-warm moist-warm dry".And the amplitude (0.02℃/10 a,-1.93/10 a;-0.25℃/10a,-84.48/10 a)on average temperature and aridity index before mutation point were higher than that after mutation point (-0.01 ℃/10 a,-0.05/10 a;-0.12℃/10 a,22.14/10 a)in summer and winter,whose change tendency were"cold dry-warm moist-cold dry".And amplitude (0.02℃/10 a,-56.76/10 a)on average temperature and aridity index before muta-tion point were lower (higher)than that after mutation point (0.05℃/10 a,-16.34/10 a)in autumn,whose change tendency were"cold dry-warm moist-cold moist".And four season mutation points on average air temperature and aridity index were 2003,1999,1993,1978 and 1983,1969,1963,1980 in the main stream of Tarim River from 1961 to 2013.③The annual and seasonal aridity index were greater than 16.And cold-drying were obvious-ly in annual,summer and winter,and warm-drying was obviously in spring,and cold-wetting was obviously in autumn after 2000.And decreased range(0.53 ℃/10 a,0.9℃/10 a)on average air temperature were largest in au-tumn and winter.