乡村振兴与新型城镇化耦合协调的动态演进及其驱动机制

重构乡村振兴与新型城镇化的指标体系,采用耦合协调度模型、空间马尔可夫链以及地理加权回归模型,分析了2005—2017年中国30个省（市、自治区）乡村振兴与新型城镇化的耦合协调水平、时空分异格局、空间动态演进以及驱动机制。研究发现：（1）乡村振兴与新型城镇化的耦合协调度呈现“东部高、西南低”的分布特征,中级协调区域逐步向中部扩散,高级协调区域数量不断增加;高级协调类型省（市、自治区）中“乡村振兴滞后型”占大多数,初级协调和濒临失调类型省（市、自治区）中“新型城镇化发展滞后型”居多。（2）耦合协调度的动态演进呈现维持原有状态稳定性的特征,较难实现跨越式转移,处于高级协调阶段的省（市、自治区）存在“俱乐部趋同”现象。向上转移的省（市、自治区）主要集中在中部,向下调整的以北方省（市、自治区）居多;耦合协调较高的省（市、自治区）对邻近省（市、自治区）具有正向溢出效应,而耦合协调度低的省（市、自治区）对周围产生负向效应,且这种影响是不对称的。（3）影响乡村振兴与新型城镇化耦合协调度变化的驱动力空间差异显著,表现出层级带状分布的发展态势。政府驱动、投资驱动、人口驱动呈现南北层级带状分布。消费驱动、收入驱动、产业驱动呈现东西层级带状分布。

The dynamic evolution and its driving mechanism of coordination of rural rejuvenation and new urbanization

The research reconstructed the index system for rural revitalization and new urbanization, and used the coupling coordination model, spatial Markov chain, and geographic weighted regression model to analyze the coupling between rural revitalization and new urbanization in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) of China from 2005 to 2017 in the aspects of coordination level, spatio-temporal differentiation pattern, dynamic evolution of space, and driving mechanisms. The results show that: (1) The degree of coupling and coordination between rural revitalization and new urbanization presents a distribution pattern of "high in the east and low in the southwest"; intermediate coordination areas are gradually spreading to the middle, and the number of high-level coordination areas is increasing. Most of the provinces with advanced coordination type are characterised by "lagging in rural development", and most of them with primary coordination and near-imbalance types are featured by "new urbanization and development lagging". (2) The dynamic evolution of the degree of coupling coordination showed the characteristics of maintaining the stability of the original state, and it was difficult to achieve leapfrog transfer. There is a phenomenon of "club convergence" in the provinces in the advanced coordination stage. The provinces that are shifting upward are mainly concentrated in the central region, and most northern provinces are undergoing downward adjustments. Areas with a low degree of coupling and coordination have a negative spillover effect on the surroundings, while areas with a high degree have a positive effect on neighboring provinces, indicating that the spillover effect is asymmetric. (3) The driving force that affects the change in the degree of coupling and coordination of rural revitalization and new urbanization has a significant spatial difference, showing a development trend of hierarchical band distribution. Government-driven, investment-driven and population-driven forces present a north-south-level band-shaped distribution. Consumption-driven, income-driven, and industry-driven forces present a zonal distribution of east and west levels.