国内外气象干旱研究现状与前沿分析

基于Web of Science(WOS)核心数据库和中国知网(CNKI)中有关气象干旱的文献,利用CiteSpace可视化软件,采用关键词词频分析、时区演化、共被引分析及引文网络结构变换等方法,综合分析国内外气象干旱研究热点、研究前沿演化趋势并对未来发展趋势进行预测。研究表明:①国际气象干旱领域主题呈现多元化趋势,包括气象干旱指标的建立、干旱气候变化、干旱成因等多个方面,各主题之间联系密切;国内研究主题主要集中于干旱指标的建立,相关热点之间的联系呼应较弱。②国外率先对干旱成因和驱动机制进行研究,国内近几年的研究相对较少且不够深入,研究内容有所固化。③通过引文网络结构变换方法,预测出具有潜在影响力的文献包括BACHMAIR S(2016)和VAN LOON、ANNE F(2015)等,主题包括SPEI(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)、Drought severity indices和Dendroclimatology等。通过对比国内外可视化图谱,浅析国内外发展差异,可为我国干旱方面未来研究方向提供借鉴。

Research status and frontier analysis of meteorological drought at domestic and abroad

Based on the core database of web of science and the literature about meteorological drought in China National Knowledge Infrastructure,using the CiteSpace visualization software,using the methods of keyword fre?quency analysis,time zone evolution,Co-citation analysis and citation network structure transformation,this pa?per comprehensively analyzes the domestic and abroad research hotspots and research frontier evolution trend of meteorological droughts and forecasts the future development trend.The results show that:①the international themes of meteorological drought are diversified,including the establishment of meteorological drought indicators,drought climate change,drought causes and other aspects,and the themes are closely related;the domestic re?search themes are mainly focused on the establishment of drought indicators,and correspondence between related hotspots is weak.②Foreign countries have taken the lead in researching the causes and driving mechanisms of drought.In recent years,domestic researches have been relatively few and not deep enough,and the research con?tent has been solidified.③Through the method of citation network structure transformation,it is predicted that the literatures with potential influence include BACHMAIR S(2016)和VAN LOON ANNE F(2015),and the topics include SPEI,Drought severity indices,Dendroclimatology and so on.Through the comparison of domestic and for?eign visual maps,the paper analyzes the development differences at home and abroad,and puts forward sugges?tions for the future drought research in China.