| 气候变化下新安江-富春江水电站径流响应模拟及适应性调度研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 闻昕,丁紫玉,方国华,雷晓辉,王浩.气候变化下新安江-富春江水电站径流响应模拟及适应性调度研究[J].水资源保护,2017,33(4):10-19. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 闻昕 丁紫玉 方国华 雷晓辉 王浩 |
| |
| 作者单位： | ;1.河海大学水利水电学院;2.中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(51609061)；长江科学院开放研究基金(CKWV2016370/KY)；水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室开放合作基金(SKHL1621)；江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 评估了气候变化对新安江-富春江水电站控制流域径流的影响,提出不同气候变化情景下的适应性调度方案,并对不确定性进行了分析。结果表明,2016—2099年,新安江水库流域径流量预计降幅为5.4%~5.8%,金华江流域径流量预计增幅为6.2%~7.5%,衢江流域径流量的预计增幅在0.8%以内。在适应性调度模式下,新安江-富春江水电站未来总发电量比常规调度提高3.43%~3.85%,新安江和富春江水电站的最大下泄流量可分别下降22.74%~33.29%和16.57%~17.63%,两电站总弃水量降幅可达81.61%~99.99%和52.98%~58.64%,综合效益显著,且该调度模式对于辐射强度以及不同模式间的不确定性具有良好的适应性。
|
| 关 键 词： | 径流 BCSD降尺度 水文模拟 自适应遗传算法 不确定性 新安江-富春江水电站 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/3/30 0:00:00 |
Study on runoff response simulation and adaptive scheduling of Xin'anjiang-Fuchunjiang hydropower station under climate change |
| |
| WEN Xin,DING Ziyu,FANG Guohu,LEI Xiaohui and WANG Hao.Study on runoff response simulation and adaptive scheduling of Xin'anjiang-Fuchunjiang hydropower station under climate change[J].Water Resources Protection,2017,33(4):10-19. |
| |
| Authors: | WEN Xin DING Ziyu FANG Guohu LEI Xiaohui and WANG Hao |
| |
| Affiliation: | College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China,College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China,State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China and State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China |
| |
| Abstract: | |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《水资源保护》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《水资源保护》下载全文 |
|
