不确定交通需求下交叉口信号配时区间优化模型

为解决混合交通流的不确定需求，合理描述不确定参数用以信号配时优化，本文提出交叉口信号控制配时参数区间优化模型。首先，以高峰时段5min采集标段数据，构造交通量区间，修正Highway Capacity Manual 2010(HCM2010)饱和流率计算公式，估计混合交通饱和流率区间；其次，构建信号配时参数区间非线性多目标规划模型，并以交叉口服务水平为性能目标，利用区间序关系与区间可能度模型进行转换，采用多层嵌套遗传算法求解；最后，以北京市道路等级相差较大的两相位与三相位交叉路口高峰时段数据为例，验证信号配时区间优化模型，并运用 VISSIM软件进行仿真比较。结果表明：本文所建模型可行、有效，且考虑饱和流率区间的信号配 时区间优化模型更适合于关键相位饱和流率波动较大的两相位信号交叉口，机动车平均延误和交叉口通行能力较Webster方法分别优化了35.9%和14.9%。

Interval Optimization Model of Intersection Signal Timing Under Uncertain Traffic Demand

To deal with the demand uncertainty of the mixed traffic flow, a nonlinear interval optimization model of traffic signal control is established by taking the traffic flow interval and saturated flow rate interval as the input parameters based on the interval optimization theory in this paper. Firstly, the traffic volume interval is constructed by using the 5-minute acquisition segment in the peak hours, and the saturated flow rate interval is estimated by modifying the traditional Highway Capacity Manual 2010(HCM2010). Secondly, taking the intersection service level as the performance, this model is transformed into a deterministic mathematical model by using the interval order relation and possibility degree model and solved by using a genetic algorithm. Finally, two-phase and three-phase intersections in which the phases have significant difference grades in rush hours in Beijing are adopted in numerical cases by VISSIM simulation software. The results show that the interval optimization method of signal timing is feasible and effective. The interval optimization model with the saturated flow rate interval is more suitable for two-phase intersection when the saturated flow rate of the key signal phase has large fluctuation. Furthermore, the vehicle average delay decreases by 35.9%, and the intersection capacity increases by 14.9%, compared with the Webster model.