考虑负荷和风电出力不确定性的输电系统机会约束规划

提出了一种考虑负荷和风电场输出功率不确定性、基于机会约束规划的输电系统规划方法。将Monte Carlo方法与解析的概率潮流计算方法相结合，得到含风电场电网输电线路的有功概率潮流分布。通过改进经典的输电系统规划模型，得到考虑负荷和风电场有功出力的概率分布、基于概率潮流计算的输电系统机会约束规划模型。为了有效求解该模型，设计了一种两步式遗传算法。该方法可以有效处理输电系统规划中的不确定性，并为规划人员提供比传统方法更丰富的信息。算例证明了该方法的有效性。

A Chance Constrained Transmission Network Expansion Planning Method Associated with Load and Wind Farm Variations

This paper proposes a chance constrained formulation to tackle the uncertainties of the load and wind turbine generator in transmission network expansion planning.The Monte Carlo simulation and analytical probabilistic power flow analysis are combined by simulating the probability density function of wind farm output and applying it in analytical probabilistic load flow calculation.A chance constrained transmission network expansion planning formulation considering the uncertainties of both the load and wind turbine generator is worked out.The optimization problem is solved with a two-step genetic algorithm.The formulation proposed is more computationally efficient and can deal with uncertainties in transmission network expansion planning,the efficiency shown through a test example.