我国周边国家矿业投资政治经济环境评价研究

选取我国周边12个国家矿业投资政治经济环境数据为研究样本,基于海内外学者的研究成果及相关权威机构的考量,对矿业投资政治经济环境影响因素进行了识别,构建了一套由2个投资环境类别,9个影响因素组成的矿业投资政治经济环境评价指标体系。运用德尔菲法与熵权法结合的主客观赋权法确定各评价指标的权重,以权威机构数据及公认的等级划分规则对评价指标进行了分级,利用变权原理中的惩罚型变权建立了评价模型。结果显示,矿业投资政治经济环境良好的国家有泰国和越南;一般的有老挝、缅甸、印度尼西亚、印度、马来西亚、菲律宾、蒙古、吉尔吉斯斯坦和哈萨克斯坦;较差的只有俄罗斯。根据评价结果,结合周边国家现有资源量,得到我国战略性矿产资源国别投资顺序。最后建议项目决策者投资前应尽量避免矿业投资政治政策环境存在极端指标、通货膨胀率较大及汇率不稳定的国家,从而帮助矿山企业降低投资风险,提高投资收益率。

Study on the Evaluation of the Political and Economic Environment of Mining Investment in China

Based on the research results of domestic and foreign scholars and the consideration of relevant authoritative organizations, the data on the political and economic environment of mining investment in 12 countries around China was selected as the research sample. The influencing factors of the political and economic environment of mining investment were identified, and a set of two investments was constructed. Environmental category, nine factors affecting the political and economic environment evaluation index system of mining investment. The subjective and objective weighting method combining Delphi method and entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index. The evaluation index is ranked by authoritative agency data and recognized classification rules,and an evaluation model was established using the punitive variable weight in the principle of variable weight. The results show that Thailand and Vietnam have good political and economic environment for mining investment; Laos, Myanmar, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Philippines, Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan are the most common countries; Russia is the worst. Based on the evaluation results and the existing resources of neighboring countries, the national investment order of China"s strategic mineral resources is obtained.In the end, it is suggested that project decision makers should try to avoid countries with extreme indicators, high inflation rates, and unstable exchange rates in the political environment of mining investment before investing, so as to help mining companies reduce investment risks and increase investment returns.