基于加权证据理论的故障模式分析方法研究

针对采用传统风险优先数方法进行故障模式分析中存在不同故障模式的风险优先数值相等、风险参数的微小变化引起故障模式危害度等级波动较大的问题,从处理不确定性问题的方法论角度,提出了一种基于加权证据理论的故障模式分析方法。该方法将专家在风险参数评估过程中的认知不确定性分为基本可信度和专家属性权重分别进行量化,进而对认知不确定性进行传递和处理,实现了故障模式危害度等级的有序排列。实例分析及与现有研究结果的比较,验证了提出方法的实用性和有效性。

Research on Failure Modes Analysis Based on Weighted Evidence Theory

Aiming at the risk priority numbers of different failure modes being equal and the criticality of the fault modes changing greatly due to the tiny change of the risk parameters, a method of the failure modes analysis based on the weighted evidence theory is proposed from the perspective of the methodology of dealing with the uncertainty problem. The method qualifies the epistemic uncertainty existing in the expert evaluation of the risk parameters into the basic belief assignment and expert attribute weight respectively, and the information propagation and processing of the epistemic uncertainty is solved, and the ordered arrangement of the criticality analysis of the fault modes is eventually achieved. The practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by the case analysis and comparison with the existing research results.