基于DPSIR模型的森林生态安全时空间变化研究——以浙江省79个县区为例

森林生态安全对于维持生物多样性、促进经济可持续发展、保障人类生存具有重要影响,本文主要探讨森林生态安全的影响因素以及森林生态安全指数时间与空间变化情况,以期为提高浙江省森林生态安全状况提供理论参考。基于DPSIR(驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应,Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Responses)模型,运用专家法、熵权法等确定浙江省森林生态安全指数,从县区角度对浙江省2000—2015年森林生态安全指数进行计算与分析,并通过绘制森林生态安全指数空间分布图观察森林生态安全空间变化状况。研究结果表明:(1)响应指标权重最大,政府政策作用显著,财政支持效果明显。(2)浙江省森林生态安全等级为较安全,森林生态安全指数分布在0.4—0.5之间,呈现波动式上升趋势。(3)状态指标的影响最明显,其次是压力指标、影响力指标、驱动力指标与响应指标;天然林面积减少是造成状态指标作用下降的主要原因;响应指标受其他指标的相互作用,上升趋势明显;经济发展一定程度上抑制了浙江省森林生态安全环境的改善与指数的提高。(4)浙江省森林生态安全指数地区分布不均匀,西南部地区森林生态安全指数高于东北部地区,县区指数差异明显,受自然环境与经济发展的双重影响。针对上述时空变化情况得出,浙江省应加大政策的扶持力度,增加林业生态建设投资;加快产业转型,实行循环经济,延长企业产业链;加强森林保护区的建设力度,制定相关条例规范人们行为的对策建议。

The spatio-temporal changes of forest ecological security based on DPSIR model: cases study in Zhejiang Province

Forest ecological security plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity, promoting sustainable economic development, and ensuring human survival.In this study, we mainly discussed the influence factors of forest ecological security and the spatio-temporal changes of forest ecological security index, to provide a theoretical reference for improving forest ecological security in Zhejiang Province. Based on the DPSIR(Driving porce-Pressure-State-Impact-Responses)model, the expert method and entropy weight method were used to determine the forest ecological security index of Zhejiang Province. From the perspective of county and district, we calculated and analyzed the forest ecological security index from 2000 to 2015, and observed the spatial change of forest ecological security through the spatial distribution map of forest ecological security index. The results indicates that (1) the response index have the greatest weight, the government policy has a significant effect, and the financial support effect is obvious. (2) The forest ecological security index is relatively safe in Zhejiang Province.The forest ecological security index is between 0.4 and 0.5, showing a volatility upward trend. (3) The state index has the most obvious impact on the calculation of forest ecological security index, followed by the pressure index, impact index, driving force index, and response index.The reduction of natural forest area is the main reason for the decline in the state index.The response index is affected by the interaction of other indexes, and the upward trend is obvious.The economic development has inhibited the improvement of the forest ecological security environment and the improvement of the index to a certain extent in Zhejiang Province. (4) The forest ecological security areas in Zhejiang Province are unevenly distributed. The forest ecological security index in the southwestern region is higher than that in the northeastern region. The county-level index is significantly different, which is affected by both the natural environment and economic development. We provide the suggestions based on the above results: Zhejiang Province should increase policy support and increase investment in forestry ecological construction; accelerate industrial transformation, implement circular economy, and extend enterprise industrial chain; strengthen the construction of forest reserves and formulate relevant regulations to regulate people''s behavior.