基于椭圆概率误差的落点精度评定方法

制导导弹和炮弹的命中精度是衡量弹道武器等系统性能的一项重要评价指标,其中圆概率误差(Circular Error Probable,CEP)是最常用的落点精度评定方法。由于导航系统的偏差和其他随机因素的影响,实际导弹的落点分布通常沿不同方向不均匀并且方向相关,传统的CEP无法描述落点误差的方向性和相关性。根据落点分布的相关性和非等标准误差特点,提出了一种新的椭圆概率误差(Elliptic Error Probable,EEP)的落点精度评定方法,并给出了精确表达式。该方法利用椭圆的长轴、短轴和旋转角度3个参数描述落点精度,分别建立了沿原始坐标轴的两参数椭圆概率误差模型和沿标准差解耦坐标轴的三参数椭圆概率误差模型。通过仿真对比发现,相比圆概率误差和两参数椭圆概率误差,三参数椭圆概率误差模型面积最小。因此,椭圆概率误差能够更精准地描述导航精度在不同方向的差异及方向相关性,将为预估落点误差的方向性及目标摧毁概率范围提供依据。

An Accuracy Evaluation Method of Fall Points Based on Elliptic Error Probable

The hit accuracy of ballistic missile is a critical accuracy evaluating index for weapon systems and circular Error Probable(CEP)is the most used accuracy evaluation method of fall points.In practice,the missile fall point distribution is usually in-homogeneous and related along different direction.In this reason,CEP cannot describe the directional difference and relativity of fall point error.Based on the related and non-equal standard error of fall point distribute,a new elliptic error probable(EEP)is proposed and its accurate expression is given.According to the new hit accuracy evaluation method,a two-parameter elliptic error probable along initial coordinate system and a three-parameter elliptic error probable along decoupled standard error coordinate system are built.Finally,the simulation shows that the three-parameter elliptic error probable has the smallest area,compared with the CEP and the two-parameter elliptic error probable.Consequently,three-parameter elliptic error probable can describe the directional difference and relativity of fall point error precisely,which will provide a basis for the estimation of fall point direction and the analysis of the error generation reasons.